Market Overview for Convex Finance/Tether (CVXUSDT) — 2025-11-11

• Price surged to a 24-hour high of 2.299 before correcting to 2.247.
• Momentum shifted mid-day with a bearish reversal after an overbought RSI condition.
• Strong volume expansion occurred between 23:45 ET and 00:00 ET, coinciding with a breakout.
• Bollinger Bands showed moderate volatility expansion as price tested the upper band.
• Key support at 2.240 appears solid, with a possible next test of 2.200 on a deeper pullback.

Convex Finance/Tether (CVXUSDT) opened at $2.04 on 2025-11-10 at 12:00 ET and rose to a high of $2.299 before settling at $2.247 by 12:00 ET on 2025-11-11. Total traded volume reached 1,136,444.277 units, with a notional turnover of approximately $2,567,690.

The price action displayed a clear bullish bias early in the session, with a sharp 4.5% move driven by high volume. A notable formation occurred near the 2.299 level, where a long upper wick indicated rejection from sellers. A doji emerged around 03:00 ET, hinting at indecision and foreshadowing a pullback. Key support levels were identified at 2.240 and 2.200, with the 2.240 level showing strong buying interest. The 20-period EMA on the 15-minute chart acted as dynamic support during the early pullback.

Structure & Formations

The 24-hour chart displayed a bullish continuation pattern with price breaking above the 2.261 level after consolidating within a tight range. The 50-period EMA on the 15-minute chart crossed above the 20-period EMA in the morning, confirming short-term strength. On the daily chart, the 50-period EMA is approaching the 100-period EMA from above, suggesting a potential retest of the 2.328 high before a possible bearish correction. A bearish engulfing pattern formed near 03:00 ET, signaling a possible near-term correction toward 2.200.

MACD & RSI

The 15-minute MACD showed a strong bullish crossover early in the session, pushing momentum higher before diverging with price in the morning. The RSI spiked to overbought territory (above 75) at 23:45 ET and has since been in a bearish divergence trend, indicating potential exhaustion in the bullish move. On the daily chart, RSI remains in overbought territory, suggesting a high probability of a short-term pullback. Momentum appears to be slowing, and a correction could be imminent if RSI crosses below 50.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility expanded significantly around the 23:45 ET to 00:00 ET period, with price spiking through the upper Bollinger Band. The 15-minute bands have since contracted, suggesting a consolidation phase. Price is currently near the middle band on the 15-minute chart, but the daily bands show price near the upper band, indicating a potential overbought condition on the broader time frame. A break below the 2.240 level could trigger a test of the 2.200 support and wider band contraction.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked during the 23:45 ET to 00:00 ET period, coinciding with a breakout above key resistance. The high notional turnover of $480,000 during that interval suggests strong conviction among market participants. A volume divergence was observed in the early morning as price pulled back without a corresponding rise in volume, signaling potential bearish pressure. The overall volume profile favors the bulls for now, but a sustained decline in volume could signal weakening momentum.

Fibonacci Retracements

Fibonacci levels were applied to the 2.261–2.299 swing, highlighting a 61.8% retracement at 2.270 and a 38.2% level at 2.281. Price is currently consolidating near the 50% retracement level at 2.265. On the daily chart, a retest of the 2.328 high could see price fall into the 61.8% Fibonacci level at 2.297 before encountering key support at 2.245. Traders may watch the 2.260 level closely for confirmation of a potential reversal.

Backtest Hypothesis

A backtest strategy was conducted on the Bullish Engulfing pattern applied to BLSH.N, with an enforced 5-day holding period to manage risk. The results provide insights into how similar candlestick signals might perform under controlled conditions. The strategy’s performance could be mirrored or adapted for CVXUSDT by applying the same risk-control rules to short-term bullish patterns, such as the ones observed early in the 24-hour window. The success of such a strategy depends on volume confirmation and alignment with broader technical levels, as seen in the current CVXUSDT analysis.