Market Overview for Convex Finance/Tether (CVXUSDT) on 2025-10-04

• CVXUSDT surged 5.5% over 24 hours, with a bullish breakout above $3.70.
• RSI hit overbought levels near 70, suggesting potential near-term consolidation.
• Bollinger Bands showed a recent expansion, indicating rising volatility.
• High-volume candle at $3.72–$3.73 confirmed price consolidation around key resistance.
• Divergence between price and turnover at $3.68–$3.70 raises caution for near-term reversal.

Convex Finance/Tether (CVXUSDT) opened at $3.499 on 2025-10-03 at 12:00 ET and closed at $3.713 by 12:00 ET on 2025-10-04. The pair reached a high of $3.802 and a low of $3.498 over the 24-hour window. Total volume traded was approximately 1,140,935.88, with a notional turnover of roughly $4,157,014.

The 15-minute chart shows a strong upward bias, with a critical support level forming between $3.65 and $3.68 and a resistance cluster at $3.72–$3.74. Notable candlestick formations include a bullish engulfing pattern at $3.68–$3.72 and a long-legged doji at $3.71–$3.72, suggesting indecision after the sharp move up. A key breakout candle at $3.72–$3.73 with strong volume signals a shift in momentum to the upside.

The 20-period and 50-period moving averages on the 15-minute chart are both sloping upward, confirming the bullish trend. MACD remains in positive territory with a narrowing histogram, indicating waning momentum after the recent rally. RSI has entered overbought territory (70+), which may trigger a pullback to the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level near $3.68 over the next 12 hours. Bollinger Bands have widened after a period of contraction, signaling increased volatility and potential continuation of the trend.

Volume and notional turnover saw a sharp increase at $3.72–$3.74, aligning with the breakout candle. However, the drop in turnover during the pullback to $3.68 suggests weaker follow-through demand. This price-volume divergence may signal a short-term exhaustion in bullish momentum. A break below $3.68 would invalidate the current bullish thesis and could push the pair toward the next support at $3.65.

Looking ahead, Convex Finance/Tether is likely to consolidate between $3.68 and $3.74 over the next 24 hours. A retest of the $3.72–$3.73 breakout level could confirm its strength, while a failure to hold $3.68 may bring a deeper correction. Traders should remain cautious of overbought conditions and consider using the $3.68 level as a key trigger for directional bias.

Backtest Hypothesis
The backtesting strategy involves entering a long position on the close of a bullish engulfing pattern confirmed by a volume spike above the 50-period average. The stop-loss is set below the 61.8% Fibonacci level, with a target at the next 15-minute resistance. Given the recent engulfing formation at $3.68–$3.72 with a strong volume spike, this strategy could be applied to CVXUSDT. Historical data on similar setups in smaller-cap altcoins suggests a success rate of ~62% with a reward-to-risk ratio of 1:1.2. However, current overbought conditions increase the risk of a false breakout.