Market Overview for Convex Finance/Tether (CVXUSDT) – 2025-10-03

• Price opened at $3.353 and surged to a 24-hour high of $3.558 before retracting to close at $3.431.
• A bullish engulfing pattern emerged during a key rally, but was followed by a bearish correction.
• RSI and MACD signaled overbought conditions during the peak, suggesting a potential pullback.
• Volatility expanded during the rally, with volume peaking at 30,527.488 during a large negative reversal candle.
• Convex Finance/Tether (CVXUSDT) experienced significant intraday swings amid mixed momentum.

Convex Finance/Tether (CVXUSDT) opened at $3.353 on 2025-10-02 at 12:00 ET and closed at $3.431 at the same time on 2025-10-03. The pair hit a high of $3.558 and a low of $3.353 during the 24-hour period, with total volume trading at 305,274.88 and a turnover of $993,859.35.

Structure & Formations

The 15-minute OHLCV data reveals a sharp and sustained rally from 19:00 ET to 20:30 ET on 2025-10-02, during which price surged from $3.5 to $3.558 in under three hours. This was followed by a significant bearish reversal candle at 20:30 ET, which printed a high of $3.554 and closed at $3.498. The candle’s long upper wick and bearish close suggest a rejection of the $3.55 level. Key support levels are identified at $3.46 and $3.42, while resistance levels appear at $3.55, $3.50, and $3.48. A bullish engulfing pattern was evident during the initial upswing, but it was negated by a bearish correction.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period SMAs crossed during the rally, signaling short-term bullish momentum. However, the 50-period SMA quickly caught up with price, forming a bearish convergence. On a daily scale, the 50, 100, and 200-period SMAs are aligned in a downtrend, indicating a bearish bias for the broader timeframe.

MACD & RSI

The MACD line turned bearish during the pullback phase, with the histogram showing divergence from the bullish rally. The RSI crossed above 70 during the $3.558 peak and later dropped below 50 during the bearish correction. This suggests overbought conditions followed by a pullback. While the RSI briefly dipped into oversold territory at $3.42, it failed to confirm a strong bounce, suggesting a lack of conviction in the short-term buyers.

Bollinger Bands

Price briefly touched the upper Bollinger Band during the peak at $3.558, indicating high volatility. The bands were relatively wide during the rally, suggesting increased price action. During the bearish correction, price remained within the bands, but a test of the lower band occurred at $3.42, failing to break through decisively.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked significantly during the bearish reversal candle at 20:30 ET, with over 30,527.488 units traded on that 15-minute bar. This high-volume correction was accompanied by a large negative price swing, confirming the bearish sentiment. Turnover also rose during the correction, aligning with the volume spike. However, during the rally, the volume-to-price action showed weaker confirmation—price moved sharply, but volume remained relatively lower than during the correction, indicating a less orderly bull move.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci retracement to the 15-minute rally from $3.392 to $3.558, the 61.8% level at $3.493 and the 50% level at $3.474 appear as potential support zones. On the daily chart, retracing from a recent high to a key support area, the 61.8% and 38.2% levels at $3.55 and $3.48 may serve as resistance targets if the price retraces back up.

Backtest Hypothesis

Given the recent price action and technical signals, a potential backtesting strategy could focus on short-term mean reversion around key Fibonacci levels and moving average crossovers. A long entry could be triggered when price pulls back to the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level at $3.493 and the 20-period SMA crosses above the 50-period SMA. A stop-loss could be placed below the $3.46 support level, with a take-profit at the $3.55 resistance. During the bearish correction phase, a short entry could be considered when RSI falls below 50 and volume spikes above the 15-minute average, confirming distribution. This strategy would benefit from monitoring both MACD divergence and volume action for confirmation of trend exhaustion.