Market Overview for Convex Finance/Tether (CVXUSDT) on 2025-09-24

• Price declined from 3.434 to 3.405 amid high volatility, with a key support at 3.343
• RSI and MACD show bearish momentum, suggesting potential for further downside
• Bollinger Bands widened significantly, indicating increased market uncertainty
• Volume spiked during the selloff, confirming bearish sentiment and trend strength

Convex Finance/Tether (CVXUSDT) opened at 3.386 on 2025-09-23 at 16:00 ET, reaching a high of 3.434 before closing at 3.405 on 2025-09-24 at 12:00 ET. The pair recorded a low of 3.17 over the 24-hour period. Total volume was 420,361.33, and notional turnover hit $1,434,482.07. The price action reflects a bearish trend with clear signs of exhaustion in buying pressure.

Structure & Formations

The price action over the past 24 hours exhibited a bearish structure with multiple key resistance levels failing to hold, most notably at 3.415 and 3.394. A significant bearish engulfing pattern formed at 03:30 ET, confirming the breakdown from the 3.304–3.348 range. A key support level appears to be forming near 3.343, as the price has bounced twice off that level. A doji formed at 00:00 ET, indicating indecision, but the follow-through was clearly bearish.

Moving Averages

The 20-period and 50-period moving averages on the 15-minute chart remained bearish, with the 50-period line crossing below the 20-period line in the late hours of 2025-09-23. On the daily chart, the 50/100/200-period EMA lines have been in a downward sequence, reinforcing the bearish bias. Price has been below all three moving averages for the majority of the period, suggesting a continuation of the downtrend is likely.

MACD & RSI

The MACD has been in a bearish crossover for the majority of the 24-hour period, with the histogram showing a consistent expansion in bearish momentum. The RSI has dropped below 30, indicating oversold conditions, though this has not been enough to trigger a reversal, suggesting the bearish trend is intact. The divergence between RSI and price action is weak, as the RSI has not made higher lows with the price, reinforcing the bearish outlook.

Bollinger Bands

Bollinger Bands have widened significantly during the selloff, indicating a sharp increase in volatility. Price has remained within the band range, but not always near the upper or lower bounds. The most recent contraction occurred around 01:00 ET, followed by a sharp move to the downside, a typical prelude to a breakout or breakdown. Currently, the price is sitting near the lower band, reinforcing the oversold condition.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked during the key breakdown around 03:30 ET and again at 04:15 ET when the price dropped from 3.249 to 3.21. This was accompanied by a large increase in notional turnover, which confirms the bearish move. A divergence between price and volume occurred around 07:45 ET, with volume declining even as the price continued to rise slightly, indicating weakening bullish momentum.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci retracement levels to the recent swing from 3.17 to 3.434, the price is currently near the 61.8% retracement level at 3.334. This is a critical level for near-term action; a break below this could target the 78.6% level at 3.26. On the 15-minute chart, the 3.371–3.309 swing shows the price now testing the 61.8% retracement at 3.342, a potential short-term support.

Backtest Hypothesis

Given the bearish momentum and confirmed breakdowns on the 15-minute chart, a backtesting strategy could focus on entering short positions on a close below key support levels (e.g., 3.343) with a stop just above the nearest resistance. Targets could be set at the next Fibonacci levels (3.334 and 3.26), with a trailing stop to lock in gains. This strategy would align with the bearish bias in MACD, RSI, and volume action, offering a high-probability trade in the near term.