Market Overview: Convex Finance (CVXUSDT) 24-Hour Summary (2025-08-25)

• CVXUSDT dropped 11.6% over 24 hours, testing key support near $3.95 with a potential reversal forming.
• Bullish momentum faded as RSI oversold and MACD diverged, signaling a possible short-term bounce.
• Volume surged during breakdown into the 3.95 level, confirming bearish conviction and high volatility.
• Fibonacci 61.8% support at $3.975 acted as a short-term floor, aligning with Bollinger Band compression.
• Doomsday candle pattern formed after the 04:15 ET low, hinting at further downside risks in the near term.

Convex Finance (CVXUSDT) opened at $4.295 (12:00 ET − 1) and traded between $4.399 and $3.951 before closing at $3.986 (12:00 ET). Total volume was 461,661.15, with turnover amounting to $1,862,142. The price action reflected bearish exhaustion amid high volatility and key support testing.

Structure & Formations

CVXUSDT formed a doomsday candle pattern (long upper wick, short lower wick, bearish close) at the 04:15 ET low, suggesting sellers dominated. A bearish engulfing pattern formed near $4.30, confirming a shift in momentum. The price broke below the 38.2% Fibonacci level at $4.08, finding temporary support at the 61.8% level of $3.975.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, price broke below both the 20-EMA and 50-EMA, reinforcing bearish bias. On the daily chart, the 50- and 100-day moving averages are aligned in a downward trend, with the 200-day MA offering no immediate support. The short-term bias remains bearish as price is below all key moving averages.

MACD & RSI

MACD turned negative in the late ET hours, with a bearish crossover occurring at 01:45 ET. RSI hit oversold territory near 30 at the 11:15 ET low and failed to produce a bullish reversal, indicating a lack of buying interest. Momentum may consolidate near these levels before any meaningful reversal.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility expanded dramatically between 19:45 ET and 00:45 ET, with price breaking below the lower band to hit $4.02. Bollinger Band compression re-emerged near the 3.95–4.00 range, indicating a potential consolidation phase. Prices may test the $3.90–$3.95 range if the contraction breaks lower.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked significantly during the breakdown at 19:45 ET and 04:15 ET, with turnover surging to $106,000 during the $4.294–$4.210 decline. Notional turnover diverged slightly from price during the 03:00–07:00 ET consolidation phase, signaling possible bearish exhaustion and a potential bounce.

Fibonacci Retracements

The 61.8% Fibonacci level of the $4.15–$4.399 swing provided a key floor at $3.975, where the price bounced modestly. A further decline could target the 78.6% level at $3.90, with potential support from the 200-day MA at $3.88 if the bearish trend continues.

CVXUSDT may consolidate between $3.95 and $4.10 in the next 24 hours, with a risk of testing $3.90 if the bearish momentum persists. A short-covering bounce to $4.06–$4.08 could occur if RSI shows divergence, but investors should remain cautious as the broader bearish structure remains intact.