Market Overview for ConstitutionDAO/Tether (PEOPLEUSDT)

Summary
• Price declined from 0.01277 to 0.01228, with a 24-hour volume of $46.2M and turnover of $585.7K.
• RSI-14 remains below 30, indicating potential oversold conditions for the first time in recent cycles.
• Volatility widened as price broke below the 20-period MA on the 15-minute chart.
• A bearish engulfing pattern emerged at 0.01254, signaling further downside risk.
• Bollinger Bands show price near the lower band, reinforcing overbought/oversold signals.

ConstitutionDAO/Tether (PEOPLEUSDT) opened at 0.01267 at 12:00 ET–1 and closed at 0.01228 at 12:00 ET today. The price touched a high of 0.01277 and a low of 0.01200 during the 24-hour period. Total trading volume amounted to 158,347,640.4, while total turnover reached $585.7K. The decline was supported by increased volume and bearish momentum, especially after 05:00 ET.

Price action on the 15-minute chart shows a clear bearish bias. Key support appears to have formed in the 0.01225–0.01235 range, while resistance is visible at 0.01255 and 0.01265. A bearish engulfing candle at 0.01254 marked a short-term reversal from a consolidation phase. The 20-period MA has dropped below the 50-period MA, confirming weakening momentum and a possible continuation of the downward trend.

Momentum indicators reinforce the bearish case. The 14-period RSI has remained in the oversold territory (<30) since early morning, with a recent divergence between price and RSI suggesting a potential rebound, but not a reversal. MACD is negative and crossing below the signal line, reinforcing the bearish outlook. Bollinger Bands show price near the lower band at 0.01228, indicating a high probability of a retest of key support or a bounce back toward the 0.0124–0.0125 area.

Fibonacci retracements on the 15-minute chart highlight a 61.8% retracement level at 0.01233, which aligns with the key support zone. On the daily chart, the 61.8% level is at 0.01250, which has been a recurring pivot point. Divergence between price and volume has not emerged strongly, so the bearish momentum appears to be supported by order flow. A break below 0.01220 could trigger further liquidation pressure.

Backtest Hypothesis
The RSI-14 oversold backtest for PEOPLEUSDT (buy when RSI-14 < 30 and exit after one trading day) has shown mixed results over the 2022–2025 period. With a total return of 8.85% and an annualized return of 10.48%, the strategy performs modestly in a highly volatile environment. However, the Sharpe ratio of 0.26 indicates high risk-adjusted underperformance, with a maximum drawdown of 57.67% reflecting the market's sharp corrections. Despite today’s RSI-14 falling below 30, the strategy’s historical performance suggests that such signals may not be reliable enough on their own and could benefit from additional risk controls such as stop-loss levels or filters for volume confirmation.