Market Overview for ConstitutionDAO/Tether (PEOPLEUSDT)

• Price tested key resistance at $0.01827 before retreating, forming a bearish divergence.
• High volume seen during the drop from $0.01856 to $0.01809, signaling bearish conviction.
• 24-hour RSI near overbought levels reversed downward, suggesting momentum exhaustion.
• Bollinger Bands show recent expansion, indicating rising volatility during the session.
• Daily close below 20-period MA on 15-minute chart hints at near-term bearish bias.

ConstitutionDAO/Tether (PEOPLEUSDT) opened at $0.01803 (12:00 ET − 1) and reached a high of $0.01856 during the 24-hour period, before closing at $0.01777 by 12:00 ET. The pair traded as low as $0.01765 during the session. Total trading volume reached 184.2 million USDT, with a notional turnover of approximately $3.36 million.

Structure & Formations

Price formed several notable patterns during the session, including a bearish engulfing pattern around 19:15 ET and multiple long-tailed dojis in the late hours of the night. Key resistance was tested at $0.01827, which failed to hold, leading to a breakdown below $0.0181. A strong bearish divergence formed on the 15-minute chart as prices declined and momentum weakened, suggesting a potential continuation of the downward trend. Support levels at $0.0180 and $0.0178 were repeatedly tested, with the latter showing early signs of consolidation.

Moving Averages and MACD/RSI

The 20-period and 50-period moving averages on the 15-minute chart crossed below the price action, reinforcing the bearish bias. MACD showed a bearish crossover in the late hours of the session, confirming the downward momentum. RSI reached overbought levels early in the day but failed to break 60, instead declining sharply afterward to signal weakening buying pressure. The RSI’s failure to hold above 60 suggests the market may be entering a correction phase.

Bollinger Bands and Volatility

Bollinger Bands widened significantly during the drop from $0.01856 to $0.01787, indicating rising volatility and increased uncertainty among traders. Price spent the majority of the session below the 20-period moving average, suggesting short-term bearish dominance. A notable contraction occurred in the early morning, followed by a sharp expansion as prices broke down through key support. The current price sits near the lower band, suggesting a possible bounce back toward the mid-band or a continuation of the bearish move.

Fibonacci Retracements

Fibonacci retracement levels from the recent swing high of $0.01856 to the low of $0.01765 show the current price near the 61.8% level at $0.01792. A break below the 78.6% retracement at $0.01765 could signal a deeper correction. On the 15-minute chart, the 38.2% and 50% retracement levels corresponded to key resistance and support zones during the session, with price failing to hold above the 50% level, reinforcing the bearish outlook.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked during the 17:15–18:00 ET window as price declined sharply from $0.0182 to $0.01789. This was the highest volume period of the session, with over 30 million USDT traded during the 17:15 candle alone. Turnover aligned with volume spikes, with the most significant divergence occurring during the 01:30–03:00 ET period, where price continued to fall despite lower volume, indicating weakening bearish conviction. A further drop in volume during the morning hours suggests traders are becoming cautious.

Backtest Hypothesis

The proposed backtesting strategy involves entering short positions on 15-minute chart bearish engulfing patterns confirmed by a RSI below 60 and a bearish MACD crossover. Stop-loss is placed above the 50-period moving average, and take-profit targets are aligned with Fibonacci retracement levels. Given the recent price action and the confirmation of bearish signals, a short bias is warranted for the next 24 hours. However, a breakout above $0.01827 could invalidate the setup and reverse the bias. The strategy would benefit from additional volatility filters to avoid false signals during consolidation phases.