Market Overview for ConstitutionDAO/Tether (PEOPLEUSDT) – 2025-11-12

Summary
• Price declined from 0.01202 to 0.01195 in 24 hours.
• Volume surged near the end of the session, suggesting potential reversal.
• RSI near oversold levels, signaling a potential short-term bounce.
• Bollinger Bands show recent contraction, hinting at a possible breakout.
• Bearish engulfing patterns appeared during the initial 4 hours of the session.

The ConstitutionDAO/Tether (PEOPLEUSDT) pair opened at 0.01202 on 2025-11-11 at 12:00 ET and closed at 0.01195 on 2025-11-12 at 12:00 ET, reaching a high of 0.01207 and a low of 0.01112 during the period. The total volume over the 24 hours was approximately 126,531,323.88 units of PEOPLE, with a notional turnover of roughly $1,515,200.

The pair spent much of the 24-hour session in a downtrend, punctuated by several bearish patterns, including bearish engulfing and key support breaks. Notable resistance levels emerged near 0.01202–0.01204, and support was tested at 0.01177–0.01182, with a breakdown below 0.01182 signaling bearish continuation. The 15-minute 20/50 EMA lines were in a bearish crossover, reinforcing the downward bias.

Momentum indicators reflect a weak near-term outlook. The RSI dropped below 30 for much of the session, indicating oversold conditions, while the MACD remained in negative territory with a bearish divergence. The pair spent most of the session near the lower Bollinger Band, with volatility showing signs of contraction before the final few hours of increased volume.

Fibonacci retracement levels from the key swing high of 0.01207 to the low of 0.01145 were tested. The 61.8% level (~0.01168) was briefly held, but a breakdown below 0.01155 suggests further bearish potential. In the next 24 hours, a test of 0.01145–0.0115 is likely, but a bounce around 0.0117–0.01174 could emerge if the RSI continues to oversell and volume increases.

A potential short-term bounce may occur near 0.0117–0.01174, but a sustained break below 0.01155 would increase bearish exposure.

Backtest Hypothesis

The backtest of a strategy buying PEOPLEUSDT when RSI is oversold and holding for 24 hours showed a modest 55.56% win rate but with an average return of -0.67%, suggesting limited profitability. This aligns with the current RSI oversold readings but highlights the challenge in relying solely on RSI for entry signals in this low-liquidity environment. The recent price action, including bearish engulfing and support breakdowns, suggests that oversold RSI levels may not be reliable reversal signals. Instead, combining RSI with volume trends and key Fibonacci levels might improve the strategy's effectiveness.