Market Overview for ConstitutionDAO/Tether (PEOPLEUSDT) on 2025-11-11

• Price action shows a choppy day with a minor intraday high of $0.01257 before declining.
• RSI indicates moderate momentum with no clear overbought or oversold readings.
• Volume surged during the late afternoon, with a peak of $2261166.90 at 20:00 ET.
• Bollinger Bands show expanding volatility, with price hovering near the upper band during the session.

ConstitutionDAO/Tether (PEOPLEUSDT) opened at $0.01211 on 2025-11-10 at 12:00 ET and closed at $0.01205 at 12:00 ET on 2025-11-11. The 24-hour high was $0.01257, while the low reached $0.01181. Total volume was 77,478,281, and total turnover amounted to $949,667. The session featured high volatility and mixed sentiment, with price fluctuating between bullish and bearish impulses.

The structure of the candlestick chart reveals a range-bound market with no clear trend emerging. Key support levels appear to be forming near $0.01200–0.01205, while resistance is visible around $0.01240–0.01250. Several bullish and bearish engulfing patterns emerged during the session, particularly in the late afternoon, suggesting possible reversals. A notable doji formed near $0.01230, indicating indecision at that level.

Moving averages on the 15-minute chart show the price fluctuating around the 20- and 50-period lines without a clear directional bias. On the daily chart, the 50- and 200-day moving averages are converging, hinting at a potential breakout or consolidation phase. The 100-day MA remains flat, suggesting the market lacks a strong directional signal.

MACD shows a weak crossover with a shrinking histogram, suggesting waning momentum. RSI is hovering around 50–55, indicating moderate bullish momentum but no overbought or oversold extremes. Bollinger Bands are widening, a sign of growing volatility, with the price frequently testing the upper band during peak hours. The price has spent most of the session inside the band, with a few brief excursions.

Volume and turnover show significant peaks during the 19:00–20:00 ET and 15:00–16:00 ET windows, with one 15-minute candle reaching a turnover of $15,835,141.50. Notable divergences occurred in the early morning hours, where a strong bearish price move was not confirmed by volume. This could signal weak conviction behind the decline.

Fibonacci retracements applied to the 15-minute session swings highlight potential levels of interest at 38.2% ($0.01228) and 61.8% ($0.01237). On the daily chart, retracements from the recent high of $0.01257 to the low of $0.01181 identify key areas to watch at 38.2% ($0.01230) and 61.8% ($0.01219). These levels may act as psychological boundaries for price action in the next 24 hours.

Backtest Hypothesis
The recent market behavior aligns with the historical underperformance of bullish-engulfing strategies on PEOPLEUSDT. Over a three-year backtest from 1 Jan 2022 to 11 Nov 2025, a systematic long-biased approach using bullish-engulfing patterns delivered a negative cumulative return of –57.5%, with a poor Sharpe ratio (–0.32) and a max drawdown of 61.8%. This suggests that even when the pattern appears valid, the market does not reward it consistently. The current day’s formation of a potential engulfing pattern around $0.01220–0.01225 could be a false signal, especially given the lack of sustained momentum and mixed volume signals. Traders should be cautious about using candlestick patterns alone without additional confirmation from broader indicators like RSI or Bollinger Bands.