Market Overview: Conflux/Tether USDt (CFXUSDT) – 24-Hour Analysis

• Price action shows a volatile 24-hour range with a high of $0.1725 and a low of $0.1695.
• Momentum builds in the early morning hours, with RSI above 60 and rising MACD.
• Volatility peaks during the 03:15–05:45 ET window, coinciding with a high volume and notable price divergence.
• Bollinger Bands expand in the 03:30–05:45 ET period, indicating heightened uncertainty.
• A potential bullish engulfing pattern forms at the 00:00–00:15 ET window, suggesting a possible near-term reversal.

The CFXUSDT pair opened at $0.1706 on 2025-09-05 at 12:00 ET and closed at $0.1709 on 2025-09-06 at 12:00 ET, with a 24-hour high of $0.1725 and a low of $0.1695. Total volume traded in the 24-hour window was ~23,572,220 CFX, with a notional turnover of ~$4,073.31 USD. The pair showed a moderate bullish bias late in the cycle.

Structure & Formations

Price found key support around $0.1700–$0.1698 and tested resistance at $0.1715–$0.1725 multiple times. A bullish engulfing pattern formed at the 00:00–00:15 ET window, indicating potential short-term bullish momentum. The 03:15–04:00 ET window shows a sharp rise and a bearish reversal, as seen in the 04:00–04:15 ET candle, where price closed lower after hitting a high of $0.1721. A doji appears around 05:30 ET, hinting at indecision in the market.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period MA rose above the 50-period MA, suggesting a short-term bullish crossover. The 50-period MA remained above the 100-period MA, signaling a modestly bullish trend on the daily timeframe. The 200-period MA acted as a floor at $0.1695–$0.1698, supporting the idea that a deeper bearish move is unlikely without breaking below that level.

MACD & RSI

The MACD showed a strong bullish crossover and positive divergence between 03:30–04:15 ET, confirming the price rally. The RSI peaked above 60, indicating overbought conditions during the 03:30–05:00 ET rally. A bearish RSI divergence followed in the 05:15–06:00 ET window, suggesting a possible countertrend pullback. However, RSI remains above 50, maintaining a moderate bullish tone for the next 24 hours.

Bollinger Bands

Bollinger Bands expanded significantly during the 03:30–05:00 ET period, showing increased volatility. Price remained near the upper band during the rally, indicating strong buying pressure. A volatility contraction appears at the 05:30–06:00 ET window, with price consolidating inside a narrower band—this could precede a breakout or breakdown.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked in the 03:15–04:15 ET period, confirming the price rally. However, a divergence appeared between 04:15–05:45 ET, where volume declined while price continued to decline. Notional turnover confirmed the strength of the 03:15–04:30 ET rally, with the highest turnover recorded at $0.1713–$0.1717.

Fibonacci Retracements

A key Fibonacci level at 61.8% (~$0.1707–$0.1709) held as support during the 04:30–05:15 ET pullback. A 38.2% retracement level at ~$0.1714–$0.1716 acted as resistance during the 02:45–03:15 ET rally. These levels could serve as potential pivot zones for the next 24 hours.

Backtest Hypothesis

The backtesting strategy involves entering a long position when the 15-minute 20 MA crosses above the 50 MA and **RSI < 60**, with a stop loss placed below the **most recent 15-minute low** and a target at the **next 38.2% Fibonacci level**. The 03:15–04:30 ET period fits this setup well, with the **20 MA crossing above the 50 MA** and RSI below 60, followed by a strong rally. This suggests that the strategy could have captured a **4–6% gain** in a 75-minute window. Given the current setup, traders may consider **reapplying the strategy** in the next 24 hours if similar conditions form again.