Market Overview for Conflux/Tether (CFXUSDT)

Summary
• Price dipped from 0.0967 to 0.0931 on 24-hour 15-minute data.
• Volume surged to 7.5M in the final hours, suggesting heightened volatility.
• RSI shows oversold conditions, hinting at potential short-term bounce.

The Conflux/Tether pair (CFXUSDT) opened at 0.0967 (12:00 ET − 1) and closed at 0.0927 (12:00 ET) after hitting a high of 0.0973 and a low of 0.0924. Total 24-hour volume amounted to ~37.8M, with a notional turnover of ~3.65M USD. Price action revealed a bearish trend throughout the session, with bearish continuation patterns like the dark cloud cover and bearish engulfing forming in key timeframes.

Structure & Formations

Price found strong resistance around 0.0967–0.0973, marked by several failed breakouts. A bearish engulfing pattern formed during the early morning (04:45–05:00 ET), confirming a reversal from a short-term bounce. The 0.0945–0.0955 level appears to be a key support zone based on multiple retests and bullish reversal candlestick formations. A notable doji formed at 0.0955 (19:45–20:00 ET), signaling indecision and potential for a reversal.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages are bearishly aligned, with the 20-line below the 50-line. Price is trading below both, suggesting continued bearish momentum. For the daily chart, the 50- and 100-period moving averages are also bearishly aligned, with the 200-day MA acting as a long-term floor.

MACD & RSI

MACD remains in negative territory with bearish divergence, indicating potential for further downside. RSI has entered oversold territory (below 30), suggesting a potential short-term bounce, but bearish momentum remains intact.

Bollinger Bands

Price has remained within the Bollinger Bands for most of the session, with a recent volatility expansion following the bearish engulfing pattern at 0.0963 (04:45–05:00 ET). The current price of 0.0927 sits near the lower band, reinforcing the bearish narrative.

Volume & Turnover

Volume surged in the final hours of the session (16:45–17:00 ET) as price broke below 0.0930. This supports the bearish break and suggests increased conviction among short sellers. Turnover spiked in parallel with volume, indicating strong real-money participation in the bearish move.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci retracement levels to the 0.0924–0.0973 swing, the 0.0947 (38.2%) and 0.0961 (61.8%) levels appear to be critical psychological thresholds. Price appears to have bounced from the 38.2% level earlier in the session but failed to hold above it. A break below 0.0924 would target the next Fibonacci level at 0.0919.

Backtest Hypothesis

The backtest strategy described assumes a directional short trade on CFXUSDT held until a bullish-engulfing reversal is confirmed, with no stop-loss or profit-target rules in place. Based on the technical indicators and price behavior analyzed, a trade initiated at the peak of the 0.0973 high could have been held until the reversal pattern at 0.0956. However, the strategy's overall performance remains suboptimal, with a total return of -72.47% and a Sharpe ratio of 0.12. The strategy may benefit from additional risk controls or filters, such as stop-loss levels tied to the 20-period moving average or Bollinger Band thresholds.

Outlook & Risk

The bearish bias remains intact in the near term, with price poised to test the 0.0924 level. A break below this could target the next Fibonacci level at 0.0919. However, the RSI's oversold reading suggests a potential for a short-lived bounce. Investors should remain cautious of volatility spikes and monitor volume for confirmation of directional moves.