Market Overview: Conflux/Tether (CFXUSDT) – 24-Hour Technical Analysis

• Conflux/Tether (CFXUSDT) fell sharply to 0.1431 over 24 hours amid heavy bearish momentum and high turnover.
• A strong breakdown below 0.1715 and 0.1665 supports suggests bearish continuation.
• Volatility expanded significantly with a large range, but volume surged during the decline.
• RSI is oversold at 28, but diverged from price action; MACD shows bearish crossover.
• Bollinger Bands contracted early, followed by a sharp expansion aligning with the price drop.

24-Hour Performance

At 12:00 ET on 2025-09-22, Conflux/Tether (CFXUSDT) opened at 0.1733, peaked at 0.1743, and closed at 0.1434 after a prolonged bearish phase. The price fell sharply below key support levels of 0.1715 and 0.1665, signaling a strong continuation of the downtrend. Over the 24-hour period, total volume reached 50,231,624.0, while total turnover (notional volume) was 7,854.49 (volume × price).

Structure & Formations

Price action revealed a bearish breakdown with multiple bearish engulfing patterns forming after the 20:30 ET timeframe. A strong bearish flag pattern was observed between 0.1730 and 0.1670, followed by a breakdown after 0.1665. A long lower wick near 0.1735 on the early morning 15-minute candles may indicate rejection at that level. A doji at 0.1718 also hinted at short-term indecision.

Moving Averages & MACD/RSI

On the 15-minute chart, the 20SMA and 50SMA crossed below price after 1:00 AM ET, confirming bearish momentum. The daily 50/100/200SMA show a clear downtrend with price below all. MACD turned bearish with a large negative histogram following the breakdown, and RSI is in oversold territory at 28. However, a divergence in RSI and price suggests exhaustion may be near.

Bollinger Bands & Volatility

Bollinger Bands contracted before 12:00 ET on the prior day and expanded sharply after 1:00 AM, aligning with the sharp selloff. Price traded below the lower band for most of the 24-hour window, indicating strong bearish bias and high volatility.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci to the recent high of 0.1743 and low of 0.1431, key retracement levels include 0.1618 (61.8%) and 0.1543 (38.2%). Price may test 0.1618 as a potential short-term support level in the next 24 hours. A break below 0.1431 could target 0.1409, as indicated by the 0.1431–0.1409 swing in the data.

Volume & Turnover Dynamics

Volume spiked significantly during the selloff from 0.1743 to 0.1660, with the largest 15-minute candle (at 06:15 ET) showing 36,522,360.0 in volume and a high of 0.1567. This suggests strong distribution. However, volume has since declined, indicating potential exhaustion in the bearish move.

Backtest Hypothesis

A viable backtest strategy for CFXUSDT could involve entering short positions after a breakdown below the 20SMA on the 15-minute chart, with a stop above the 50SMA and a take-profit at 61.8% Fibonacci levels. A long position may be triggered after a rebound above the 0.1431 low, targeting the 0.1470–0.1485 range. This approach would require monitoring for RSI divergence and volume contraction to confirm reversal potential.