Market Overview of Conflux/Tether (CFXUSDT) on 2025-11-10

Summary

• • Price action shows a bearish close, down from 0.1007 to 0.1001.
• • RSI hints at moderate momentum with no overbought or oversold signals.
• • Volatility remains moderate, with Bollinger Bands tightening toward the 48th candle.
• • Volume and turnover align, with no significant divergence.
• • A bullish engulfing pattern appears on the 150th candle, supporting the backtest hypothesis.

Opening and Closing Observations

Conflux/Tether (CFXUSDT) opened at 0.1007 on 2025-11-10 and closed at 0.1001 by 12:00 ET. The 24-hour high reached 0.1025, while the low dipped to 0.0985. Total trading volume for the period was 36.73 million, and notional turnover amounted to $3.72 million. Price action appears to have consolidated after an early-morning bearish thrust, with mixed candlestick formations suggesting indecision.

Structure & Formations

Price formed a key swing high at 0.1025 around the 40th candle and retested it as resistance before pulling back. A bearish consolidation phase emerged from the 48th candle onward, with a large bearish candle on the 52nd period confirming the trend. A bullish engulfing pattern emerged near the 150th candle, potentially signaling a short-term reversal. Support levels appear to be forming at 0.0995 and 0.0985, with resistance at 0.1010.

Moving Averages and MACD/RSI

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period MA (0.1008) crossed below the 50-period MA (0.1005), forming a bearish signal. The 50-period MA (0.1005) continues to hold above the 100-period MA (0.1003) and 200-period MA (0.1001), suggesting a longer-term bullish bias. MACD remains in a bearish crossover with a negative histogram, indicating weakening momentum. RSI fluctuated between 48 and 56, with no clear overbought or oversold readings, suggesting moderate momentum.

Bollinger Bands and Volatility

Bollinger Bands showed a moderate widening from the 48th to the 72nd candle, suggesting increased volatility. Price remained within the bands for most of the session, with no significant breakouts or contractions. The 48th candle saw a tight range, followed by a bearish expansion that may indicate a potential short-term reversal. The bands remain wide enough to suggest active price swings.

Volume and Turnover

Volume and turnover aligned well throughout the session, with no significant divergence between price and volume action. The highest volume was observed at 0.1025 (candle 40), confirming the bearish breakout. A second surge in volume occurred around the 52nd candle during the pullback, reinforcing the bearish trend. The 150th candle showed a bullish engulfing pattern with moderate volume, suggesting a potential short-term reversal.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci levels to the 15-minute swing from 0.1025 to 0.0985, key retracement levels include 0.1008 (38.2%) and 0.1017 (61.8%). Price has tested the 38.2% level (0.1008) and is currently hovering near the 50% level. The 61.8% level may serve as the next potential support. On the daily chart, recent swings suggest a 61.8% retracement at 0.1010 may provide resistance for the near term.

Backtest Hypothesis

The identified bullish engulfing pattern on the 150th candle aligns with the backtest strategy of buying CFXUSDT when a bullish engulfing pattern forms and holding for 5 days. Historical backtesting from 2022 to 2025 indicates this pattern has a 67.48% win ratio with an average profit of 0.74% per trade. The strategy’s Sharpe ratio of 1.99 and low drawdown of -3.21% suggest it is well-balanced for risk-adjusted returns. This makes the pattern a strong candidate for consideration, particularly in today’s context where a potential reversal is forming.

Forward-Looking View and Risk Caveat

Looking ahead, CFXUSDT may find support near 0.0995 and resistance at 0.1010. A break below 0.0995 could open the door for further downside to 0.0985. Traders should monitor the 150th candle’s bullish engulfing pattern for a potential short-term reversal. However, given the mixed momentum signals and moderate volatility, caution is advised, and stop-loss levels should be considered to mitigate risks from a potential break of key support levels.