Market Overview for Conflux/Tether (CFXUSDT) on 2025-10-11

• Conflux/Tether (CFXUSDT) experienced a sharp 24-hour decline, closing at 0.0975 after a low of 0.062.
• A massive 15-minute candle on 2025-10-10 21:30:00 drove the price down by ~30% amid elevated volume.
• Momentum indicators suggest oversold conditions with RSI near 20, while volume spikes diverge from price action.
• A key support level appears to have formed around 0.096–0.098, with Fibonacci levels hinting at potential bounce targets.
• Volatility expanded sharply mid-day, with Bollinger Bands widening, signaling potential for a retracement or breakout.

Opening Summary and Price Action

At 12:00 ET on 2025-10-11, Conflux/Tether (CFXUSDT) opened at 0.1333 and closed at 0.0975, marking a 27.8% decline over the 24-hour period. The pair reached an intraday high of 0.1344 and fell to a low of 0.062. The total volume traded was 132,408,166.00 CFX, with a notional turnover of approximately $12.87 million (calculated using the average close price over the 24-hour window). The price action was dominated by a large bearish engulfing pattern on October 10 at 21:30:00 ET.

Structure & Key Levels

A critical bearish engulfing pattern formed on the 15-minute chart at 21:30:00 ET, confirming a sharp reversal from a bullish trend. A potential support zone appears to be forming between 0.096 and 0.098, which has been tested multiple times in the latter half of the day. Resistance levels remain at 0.101 and 0.103, with a major psychological barrier at 0.105. A doji candle emerged at 05:15:00 ET, signaling a potential exhaustion of bearish momentum, although it is yet to be confirmed.

Moving Averages and Momentum

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages are both bearishly aligned, with price trading well below both. The 20SMA is around 0.099, and the 50SMA at 0.101, suggesting continued bearish bias in the near-term. The MACD crossed below the signal line mid-day, indicating a bearish crossover, while the RSI is currently near 20, suggesting oversold conditions. However, divergence between volume and price suggests caution—volume remained elevated even during price pullbacks, indicating ongoing selling pressure.

Bollinger Bands and Volatility

Volatility expanded significantly around 21:30:00 ET as the pair plunged into a key support zone. Bollinger Bands widened, with the price closing at the lower band, suggesting a high-probability retracement could be in play. However, the wide band also implies a potential for a continuation in either direction if buyers fail to step in. The expansion coincided with a sharp volume spike, reinforcing the bearish breakdown.

Fibonacci Retracements and Potential Reversal Targets

Fibonacci retracement levels for the most recent swing high to low (0.1344 to 0.062) indicate key levels at 0.103 (38.2%), 0.095 (50%), and 0.087 (61.8%). The price has stabilized near the 50% level (0.095–0.097), which could either act as a magnet for support or signal the beginning of a deeper correction. On the 15-minute chart, retracement levels from the 21:30:00 candle suggest potential for a bounce off 0.097.

Volume and Turnover Analysis

Volume spiked dramatically at 21:30:00 ET, reaching 28,018,91.0 CFX, while the corresponding turnover for that candle was approximately $3.47 million, the highest of the day. This suggests strong selling pressure at that time, potentially driven by algorithmic or institutional activity. However, subsequent candles have seen a pullback in volume, which could indicate either exhaustion of the bearish move or a temporary pause in the trend. Notional turnover has also diverged from price, with volume staying high despite smaller price moves—raising the possibility of a reversal or consolidation phase.

Backtest Hypothesis

The backtesting strategy described emphasizes the use of a 20-period and 50-period moving average crossover in conjunction with RSI and volume confirmation. If a 20SMA crosses below the 50SMA and RSI drops below 20, while volume spikes, the strategy triggers a short position with a stop above the 20SMA. Given the current setup—where the 20SMA and 50SMA are aligned bearishly, RSI is near 20, and volume remains elevated—it may be an opportune moment to test this hypothesis. A long position could be considered if price stabilizes near 0.096–0.097 and volume decreases, suggesting a possible short-term bottoming pattern.