Market Overview for Conflux/Tether (CFXUSDT) — 2025-10-10

• Conflux/Tether (CFXUSDT) surged to a 24-hour high of 0.1432 before consolidating near 0.1395.
• Key resistance emerged around 0.1400–0.1410, with mixed bullish and bearish candlestick signals.
• Volatility expanded sharply after 21:00 ET, with turnover spiking on a 0.14–0.1425 range.
• RSI remained within neutral territory, indicating balanced momentum without overbought/oversold extremes.
• Bollinger Bands showed moderate contraction pre-surge and expansion as the pair tested key levels.

Price and Volume Summary

On 2025-10-10 at 12:00 ET, Conflux/Tether (CFXUSDT) traded at 0.1322, down from a 24-hour high of 0.1432 to a low of 0.1312. The pair opened the previous 24-hour period at 0.1374 and closed at 0.1322. Total volume reached 48.3 million, with notional turnover of approximately $6.5 million. This suggests a significant amount of trading activity, particularly from 21:00 ET onward, when the price surged above 0.1400.

Structure & Formations

Price action revealed several key levels. A strong resistance zone formed between 0.1400 and 0.1410, with mixed candlestick signals including a bullish engulfing pattern at 0.1400 and a bearish dark cloud cover at 0.1410. A notable bearish reversal pattern appeared near the close at 0.1400 as price tested resistance and retracted sharply. Additionally, a key support level emerged at 0.1390, where price found temporary buyers multiple times. A small doji near 0.1398 suggested indecision among traders.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period moving average moved above the 50-period line in the early hours of 2025-10-10, signaling a short-term bullish crossover. However, as the price retracted, the 20-period MA began to slope downward, suggesting a weakening bullish trend. On the daily chart, the 50-day moving average is above the 100-day and 200-day lines, indicating a longer-term bullish bias, though the recent price drop could test this bias.

MACD & RSI

The MACD line crossed above the signal line in the early morning, supporting the short-term bullish momentum, but the histogram later turned negative as the price began to fall. RSI remained between 50 and 60, indicating balanced momentum without entering overbought territory. There were no clear overbought or oversold readings, but a divergence between rising RSI and falling price near 0.1400 suggested weakening momentum.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility expanded significantly after 21:00 ET as the price surged above the upper Bollinger Band. The width between the bands increased, suggesting a period of high volatility. The price then retracted sharply, finding support near the mid-band and moving down to test the lower band before closing near the 0.1322 level. This suggests that the market may be entering a period of consolidation following the recent sharp move.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked sharply during the late hours of the previous day, particularly between 21:00 and 22:00 ET, when the price surged above 0.1400. This was accompanied by a rise in notional turnover, indicating strong conviction in the bullish move. However, as the price retracted, volume declined, suggesting weakening follow-through. The divergence between price and volume near the 0.1410–0.1400 range indicated possible exhaustion among buyers.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci retracements to the recent 15-minute swing (0.1364 to 0.1432), price found support at the 61.8% level (0.1400), which coincided with a key area of previous resistance. The 38.2% level (0.1415) also saw a brief rejection before the price pulled back. On the daily chart, the 0.1390 level corresponds to a 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of a prior bearish move, indicating it could serve as a short-term support if the pair continues to retrace.

Forward-Looking View and Risk

The pair appears to be entering a critical phase as it tests key support and resistance levels. While the 0.1400–0.1410 resistance remains a key target, the recent retraction suggests that bears may have the upper hand for now. Investors should closely monitor volume and RSI for signs of a potential reversal or continuation. A break above 0.1410 could signal renewed bullish momentum, while a drop below 0.1390 could initiate a deeper correction.

Backtest Hypothesis

A possible backtesting strategy could involve entering long positions on a bullish engulfing pattern with confirmation by a break above a 15-minute 20-period moving average and RSI above 50. This would be combined with a tight stop-loss below the recent low of the pattern. Alternatively, short positions could be initiated on bearish patterns such as dark cloud covers or evening stars, especially when paired with a break below a key support level and RSI below 50. This approach could be tested on CFXUSDT’s 15-minute chart using the identified price levels and volume dynamics.