Market Overview for Conflux/Tether (CFXUSDT) on 2025-10-03

• Price rose from 0.1468 to 0.1528 before retracing to 0.1470, forming a bullish 5-wave pattern with key resistance at 0.1528.
• High volatility observed between 19:15–19:30 ET with 1.05% price jump, coinciding with a 1360k volume spike.
• RSI showed overbought conditions near 0.1527 but failed to retest the level, suggesting bearish momentum.
• Volume increased by 5.4x during the first 2.5 hours, confirming initial bullish sentiment before diverging with price.
• 24-hour Bollinger Bands show price testing the lower band at 0.1464 and bouncing off it twice, signaling support strength.

The CFXUSDT pair opened at 0.1469 on October 2, 2025, and reached a high of 0.1528 before declining to a low of 0.1464 and closing at 0.1470 on October 3, 2025. The 24-hour volume amounted to 11,008,614 units with a total turnover of $1,614,962. This suggests strong interest and active participation from traders, especially during the early afternoon and night sessions.

Key support levels were observed at 0.1470–0.1464, with the 0.1464 level acting as a critical floor after a test on the final candle of the 24-hour window. A bearish engulfing pattern formed at the high of 0.1528, signaling a reversal. Additionally, multiple bullish harami patterns were observed between 22:00–00:30 ET, suggesting potential consolidation. A notable doji occurred at 0.1491 (05:30 ET), indicating indecision near the midpoint of the range.

The 20-period EMA crossed above the 50-period EMA (golden cross) at 0.1485, confirming a short-term bullish bias. However, this was not sustained, as the 50 EMA remained below the 20 EMA by the end of the session. The 200 EMA on the daily chart is at 0.1480, suggesting a longer-term neutral stance. MACD lines diverged from price action after the peak at 0.1528, showing bearish momentum. RSI topped out at 78 near 0.1528 before a sharp decline, indicating overbought conditions and a probable bearish correction.

Bollinger Bands showed a moderate width, with price bouncing off the lower band (0.1464) and the upper band (0.1508). The most recent 15-minute candle closed near the middle band, suggesting potential consolidation. Volatility spiked after 19:00 ET, with the 19:15–19:30 ET period showing the largest price range of 0.0025. This coincided with a 1360k volume spike, confirming the strength of the move.

During the 24-hour period, volume was concentrated in the first 4 hours and the last 5 hours, with a lull in the middle of the night. Notional turnover was highest between 19:00–21:00 ET and again around 05:00–07:00 ET. Price and turnover diverged during the early morning session, which may suggest accumulation or distribution activity.

Fibonacci retracements from the 0.1468–0.1528 swing identified key levels at 0.1495 (38.2%) and 0.1483 (61.8%). Price tested the 61.8% level three times during the last 6 hours, failing to close above, suggesting potential resistance. On the daily chart, the 0.1528 high represents a 15.4% swing, with the 61.8% retracement at 0.1490 acting as a critical support/resistance level for the next 24 hours.

Looking ahead, CFXUSDT appears poised for a possible test of the 0.1464–0.1470 range, with a key focus on whether volume increases during the next rally. A break below 0.1464 could signal bearish momentum, while a close above 0.1490 may reignite bullish sentiment. However, investors should remain cautious due to the recent bearish divergence in MACD and RSI.

Backtest Hypothesis

Using the identified Fibonacci retracements and RSI divergence as entry signals, a potential backtest strategy could involve shorting CFXUSDT when RSI exceeds 70 and price is near the 61.8% Fibonacci level. Stop-loss placement could be set slightly below the previous support level, while take-profit targets would align with the 50% retracement and the lower Bollinger Band. This approach would leverage overbought conditions and strong resistance to capitalize on expected bearish continuation. Given the observed MACD divergence and volume confirmation, this hypothesis appears well-aligned with the observed price behavior over the past 24 hours.