Market Overview: Conflux/Tether (CFXUSDT) on 2025-09-17

• Price surged to a 24-hour high of $0.1849 before retreating near the opening level.
• Volatility expanded midday, with volume peaking at ~4.9M as the pair reached a key resistance level.
• RSI showed overbought conditions midday, but failed to confirm a sustained breakout.
• Bollinger Bands expanded during the rally, suggesting increased uncertainty in price direction.
• Late-day selling pressure drove price below 0.18, testing support from early morning lows.

The CFXUSDT pair opened at $0.1798 on 2025-09-16 at 12:00 ET, surged to a high of $0.1849 before the close of the 24-hour window, and ended the day at $0.1788 at 12:00 ET on 2025-09-17. Total volume traded was 40,288,920, and notional turnover came in at ~$7,250,000.

Structure & Formations

The candlestick structure over the 24-hour period revealed a strong midday rally, peaking at $0.1849. A bullish harami and a morning star pattern were observed at the top of the range, but these were not followed by strong follow-through, indicating potential indecision or consolidation. A bearish engulfing pattern formed in the late afternoon session, confirming a shift in sentiment and leading to a decline into the evening and overnight hours. Key support levels include $0.1800 and $0.1780, while key resistance appears to be between $0.1840 and $0.1845.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-EMA crossed above the 50-EMA during the midday rally, confirming a short-term bullish bias. However, by the end of the session, the price closed below both averages, signaling a potential reversal. The 50-EMA on the daily chart now sits at approximately $0.1790, providing a dynamic support zone, while the 200-EMA at $0.1785 may act as a floor for further declines.

MACD & RSI

The MACD line crossed above the signal line in the morning and pushed into positive territory, reinforcing the bullish momentum of the midday rally. However, by the late afternoon, the MACD crossed back below the signal line, indicating weakening bullish momentum. RSI hit overbought territory at ~75 during the peak of the rally but failed to sustain the level, signaling a possible bearish correction. Currently, RSI is at ~50, suggesting market equilibrium and no strong directional bias.

Bollinger Bands

Bollinger Bands expanded during the rally, indicating increased volatility and uncertainty. Price peaked near the upper band at $0.1849, suggesting a test of overbought conditions. As the price fell in the afternoon, it closed near the lower middle band, suggesting a return to consolidation. The narrowing of bands in the overnight hours signals a potential breakout or breakdown may be imminent.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked during the midday rally, with a 15-minute candle reporting 4.9M volume and a notional turnover of ~$885,000. This confirmed the strength of the initial upward move. However, as the price declined, volume and turnover dropped, indicating weaker conviction behind the downward move. A divergence between price and volume in the late evening session suggests potential for a reversal or consolidation in the near term.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci retracement levels to the recent 15-minute swing from $0.1805 to $0.1849, the 38.2% and 61.8% levels are at $0.1824 and $0.1839, respectively. The price found rejection near the 61.8% level, suggesting resistance from this area is strong. On the daily chart, a retracement of the recent weekly move could find support at ~$0.1760 and resistance at ~$0.1860.

Backtest Hypothesis

The described backtesting strategy involves entering long positions when the 20-EMA crosses above the 50-EMA and RSI is above 50, with stops below the prior swing low. Short positions are triggered when the 20-EMA crosses below the 50-EMA and RSI drops below 50, with stops above the prior swing high. Given today’s action, the strategy would have triggered a long entry in the early morning hours and a short exit in the late afternoon, capturing the peak-to-trough move. The strategy's assumptions—strong momentum confirmation and clear EMA crossovers—were largely validated by the price action, though the overbought RSI condition added caution to the trade. This reinforces the strategy’s potential in ranging-to-trending markets like CFXUSDT.