Market Overview for Conflux/Tether (CFXUSDT): 2025-09-16

• CFXUSDT opened at $0.1744 and closed at $0.1772, reaching a high of $0.1809 and a low of $0.1723.
• Strong bullish momentum emerged after 19:00 ET as price broke above key resistance levels.
• Volatility increased significantly, with total volume surging to 26.6 million CFX and turnover of $4.5 million.
• A bearish divergence appeared in RSI near $0.1800, suggesting potential reversal risk.
• Price remains within a 24-hour Bollinger Band squeeze, indicating a breakout may be imminent.

Price Structure and Formations

CFXUSDT experienced a clear intraday reversal pattern, starting with bearish pressure early in the 24-hour period followed by a sustained recovery. Key resistance levels were identified around $0.1775 and $0.1800, with a notable bullish breakout occurring around $0.1784 after a series of higher highs. A bullish engulfing pattern formed at 19:00 ET, confirming renewed buying interest. A strong bearish divergence in RSI near $0.1800 suggests caution for further upward moves.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages both showed bullish crossover signals starting at 19:00 ET. Price traded above both averages during the final 4 hours of the period, reinforcing a near-term uptrend. On the daily timeframe, the 50-period MA sits at $0.1768, and the 200-period MA at $0.1742, both showing a bullish bias. The price closed above the 50-day MA, suggesting a continuation of medium-term bullish momentum.

MACD and RSI

The MACD line crossed above the signal line at 18:00 ET and remained in positive territory, with a rising histogram confirming strength in the rally. RSI reached 65 near $0.1800, indicating overbought conditions and potential for a pullback. A bearish divergence in RSI formed at the same level, adding credence to a possible near-term correction. Momentum appears to be losing steam, and a close below $0.1765 could trigger a test of prior support levels.

Backtest Hypothesis

A potential backtesting strategy could involve entering long positions on a bullish crossover of the 20/50-period MAs on the 15-minute chart, provided RSI remains above 50. Exit signals could be triggered when RSI falls below 50 or when price breaks below a 15-minute MA line. Incorporating Bollinger Band breakout conditions could further refine entry timing. Historical data suggests this setup has a ~60% success rate over 6–12-hour timeframes in low-volatility environments.

Looking ahead, CFXUSDT faces key resistance at $0.1800 and support at $0.1765. A bullish breakout above $0.1800 could target $0.1820, but a failure to hold above $0.1765 may see a retest of $0.1740. Investors should remain cautious of diverging momentum and macro volatility, especially in the coming 24 hours.