Market Overview for Compound/Tether USDt (COMPUSDT) – 2025-09-06

• COMPUSDT traded in a descending pattern after an early morning rally, closing below $43.30.
• Volatility surged midday, with a 15-minute swing from $43.00 to $43.59 and volume spiking over 2,000.
• RSI dipped into oversold territory, while MACD hinted at a bearish crossover.
• Bollinger Bands showed moderate expansion, indicating heightened volatility and potential range-bound movement ahead.
• Fibonacci levels suggest critical support at 43.00 and resistance at 43.59 for near-term reversal cues.

Compound/Tether USDt (COMPUSDT) opened at $43.39 on 2025-09-05 at 12:00 ET and closed at $43.00 by 12:00 ET on 2025-09-06. The pair reached a high of $43.67 and a low of $42.76 over the 24-hour period. Total volume was 38,234.854, while notional turnover totaled approximately $1,642,792.

Structure & Formations

The 15-minute candlestick pattern revealed a strong bearish bias, especially from 19:30 to 20:00 ET, with a large bullish engulfing candle followed by a sharp reversal into a bearish one. A notable bearish harami and a doji emerged near $43.30, suggesting indecision. Key support levels formed at $43.00 and $42.80, while resistance levels emerged at $43.59 and $43.45. These levels may serve as critical reversal points or areas of consolidation.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-EMA and 50-EMA crossed bearishly, with price closing below both. On the daily chart, the 50-EMA is above the 100- and 200-day moving averages, indicating a potential bullish bias on the longer term. However, the short-term bearish crossover may pressure price into the lower band of the moving average envelope.

MACD & RSI

The MACD crossed bearishly below the signal line, confirming a shift in momentum. The RSI dipped below 30 mid-morning and remained in oversold territory for much of the session, suggesting a possible short-term rebound. However, without a clear bullish crossover, the pair may remain under pressure for at least the next 24 hours.

Bollinger Bands

Bollinger Bands widened significantly after 19:30 ET, indicating increased volatility. Price tested the lower band multiple times and bounced off of it, particularly around $43.00. If the 20-period Bollinger Bands contract again, it could signal a potential breakout or breakdown event. A retest of the upper band at $43.59 may confirm a bullish reversal.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked above 2,000 around $43.60, indicating strong selling pressure during the early hours of the morning. A divergence between rising price and declining volume was observed in the final hour, suggesting waning bullish conviction. Turnover peaked around $43.60 and declined steadily after a reversal at $43.30, signaling a shift in market sentiment.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci to the recent 15-minute swing from $42.76 to $43.67, key retracement levels of 38.2% at $43.36 and 61.8% at $43.16 were tested. The price briefly bounced off 38.2% before retreating, indicating a potential bearish continuation. On the daily chart, the 61.8% retracement of a recent bear wave sits at $43.00 and is now acting as a strong support level.

Backtest Hypothesis

A potential backtesting strategy involves entering a short position on a bearish MACD crossover and a break below the 50-EMA, with a stop-loss placed above the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level. A target is set at the 61.8% retracement, or $43.00. The strategy should be tested over multiple cycles, adjusting for volume confirmation and Bollinger Band expansion. A long entry could be triggered on a bullish MACD crossover and a retest of the 38.2% level with volume confirmation. This approach would aim to capture both short- and medium-term trends based on the recent divergence and volatility.