Market Overview for Compound/Tether (COMPUSDT) — October 3, 2025

• Compound/Tether (COMPUSDT) closed lower after reaching a 24-hour high near $44.32 amid early selling pressure.
• Price consolidation below 20/50-period moving averages suggests a bearish bias in the short term.
• RSI dipped into oversold territory, hinting at potential near-term reversal or pullback.
• Bollinger Bands contracted in the final hours, signaling possible volatility expansion.
• Notional turnover surged during the $44.00–$44.30 range, indicating clustered trading activity.

The 24-hour price action for Compound/Tether (COMPUSDT) saw an opening at $43.09 and a peak of $45.02 (15-minute high) before retreating to a close of $43.09 at 12:00 ET. The pair traded within a $1.93 range, with a total volume of 14,448.64 COMP and a notional turnover of approximately $625,928.70. The session was marked by choppy price action and a lack of a clear directional bias beyond a midday rally to the $44.30 area.

Support levels have appeared at $43.40 and $43.20, with the 50-period moving average (50SMA) currently acting as a key bearish barrier. The 20SMA crossed below the 50SMA at the end of the session, suggesting a weakening in bullish momentum. Resistance levels are found near $43.70 and $44.00, where the price stalled multiple times. A bearish engulfing pattern formed on the 15-minute chart near the $44.32 high, indicating rejection of higher prices.

RSI dipped into the 28–30 range by the end of the session, signaling oversold conditions and hinting at the potential for a short-term pullback. However, MACD remained in negative territory with a bearish crossover, indicating the bearish bias may persist. Bollinger Bands contracted toward the end of the session, particularly after 08:00 ET, suggesting a possible expansion in volatility ahead. Price has remained near the lower band, reinforcing the bearish tilt in the short term.

Fibonacci retracement levels from the $43.09–$44.32 move identified key areas at 38.2% ($43.86) and 61.8% ($43.52). The price stalled near 61.8% multiple times, confirming its significance as a potential area of support. On a broader scale, the 100-day and 200-day moving averages remain above the current price, indicating that the longer-term trend remains neutral to slightly bearish.

Backtest Hypothesis
The backtesting strategy under consideration uses RSI and MACD crossovers on the 15-minute chart to generate signals. A long entry is triggered when RSI dips below 30 and MACD line crosses above the signal line, with a stop-loss placed below the previous swing low. A short entry is initiated when RSI crosses above 70 and MACD line crosses below the signal line, with a stop-loss above the previous swing high. Given today’s RSI hitting 28 and MACD remaining bearish, a short-biased signal would be generated, aligning with today’s price behavior. This strategy may benefit from today’s volatility contraction, as higher volatility often follows such patterns.