Market Overview: Compound/Tether (COMPUSDT) - November 10, 2025

Summary
• Price closed mixed amid moderate volume, with consolidation near $34.95.
• RSI showed overbought conditions briefly, suggesting possible near-term pullback.
• Volatility expanded in early hours, with Bollinger Bands widening significantly.

Compound/Tether (COMPUSDT) opened at $34.31 on 2025-11-09 12:00 ET, hit a high of $35.20 and a low of $33.74, and closed at $33.93 as of 2025-11-10 12:00 ET. Total 24-hour volume was 34,611.67 COMP, and notional turnover was approximately $1,176,105. The pair showed a volatile 24-hour session with strong momentum in the early morning before fading into consolidation and a late-day pullback.

Structure & Formations

The 24-hour chart displayed a strong bullish impulse during the early hours of November 9, peaking at $35.20 before encountering resistance near $35.14. This triggered a significant pullback that reached as low as $33.74 by November 10. Key support levels emerged around $34.24 and $33.81, with a potential short-term resistance forming near $34.76–$34.95. A bearish engulfing pattern formed during the afternoon on November 10 as price closed below the prior candle’s body, signaling bearish momentum. A morning doji at $34.05 suggested indecision among buyers.

20 & 50-Period Moving Averages (15-Min Chart)

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period moving average (SMA20) and 50-period moving average (SMA50) crossed multiple times, indicating a churning and directionless market in the short term. Price moved above both averages during the early morning session but fell back below them by late afternoon. The cross of SMAs suggested a potential shift from bullish to bearish bias as the session progressed.

MACD & RSI

MACD showed mixed signals, with the histogram turning negative in the afternoon, indicating bearish momentum. The RSI reached overbought levels (70+) during the morning peak at $35.20, hinting at a possible near-term correction. The RSI later fell below the 50 threshold in the afternoon and evening, reinforcing the bearish bias. This suggests that while short-term buying pressure was strong, sellers retook control after the peak.

Bollinger Bands

Bollinger Bands expanded significantly during the morning hours, reflecting heightened volatility. Price traded near the upper band at $35.20 and then collapsed back toward the lower band as the session progressed, reaching $33.74. This contraction suggests a potential reversal or continuation depending on the next move. Price currently resides near the middle band, indicating a neutral position relative to volatility levels.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked during the morning hours, particularly around 02:00–04:00 ET, as price surged to $35.20. This suggests strong buying interest at the peak. However, volume dipped during the consolidation phase, indicating reduced conviction among buyers. Turnover followed a similar pattern, with the highest notional value traded during the early morning surge. A divergence between price and volume occurred in the late afternoon, where price continued lower while volume decreased, signaling weakening bearish momentum.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci retracements to the recent swing from $33.81 to $35.20, the 38.2% level is at $34.66 and the 61.8% level is at $34.34. Price found support near the 61.8% retracement level before falling further, suggesting a potential target for the next leg down could be near the 38.2% level if the bearish trend continues.

Backtest Hypothesis

The backtest hypothesis is based on a strategy that uses open prices for trade execution, assumes a maximum 3-day holding period, and applies no stop-loss or take-profit parameters. The strategy aligns with the observed price behavior—particularly the strong early morning surge and afternoon pullback—suggesting that a breakout-based approach may have captured some of the morning momentum. However, the late-day consolidation and divergence between price and volume suggest that the strategy may need refinement, particularly in terms of exit timing or incorporating volatility-based filters. The performance report should clarify whether the strategy would have effectively captured the morning move while mitigating the late-day losses.