Market Overview for Compound/Tether (COMPUSDT)

• Price dropped 8.6% over 24 hours, closing near support at $42.05.
• High volatility seen after 6:00 PM ET, with volume spiking above $5,000.
• RSI in oversold territory, suggesting potential for short-term bounce.
• Bollinger Bands widened, indicating increased uncertainty in the market.

Compound/Tether (COMPUSDT) opened at $44.07 on 2025-10-06 at 12:00 ET and closed at $42.05 by 12:00 ET the following day, hitting a high of $44.31 and a low of $41.88. Total volume across the 24-hour period was approximately 19,672.03, and notional turnover reached nearly $868,533. The price action reveals a bearish breakdown from prior resistance levels, with increased bearish momentum observed late in the session.

Structure & Formations

Price action displayed a bearish engulfing pattern at $44.11 and $44.09, followed by a long bearish candle at $43.88, which confirmed a shift in momentum. A key support level was identified near $42.05, where price found a short-term floor. A doji formed at $42.26, signaling indecision and potential reversal. Resistance levels to watch include $43.18, $43.44, and $43.62, all of which have previously capped upward moves.

Moving Averages

The 15-minute chart shows the price trading below both 20SMA and 50SMA, indicating short-term bearish bias. The 50SMA is at $43.90, while the 100SMA is at $43.65, and the 200SMA sits at $43.50. Daily moving averages suggest a continuation of the downtrend, with the price well below all three. This alignment reinforces the bearish momentum for the next 24 hours.

MACD & RSI

MACD crossed below zero with a bearish signal line, and the histogram has been negative for over 12 hours, reinforcing the downtrend. RSI is in oversold territory at 28, which may indicate a short-term bounce could be near, but with no signs of a strong reversal in MACD, the bounce may be limited. RSI remains below 30, suggesting traders could watch for a potential rebound from the $42.05 level.

Bollinger Bands

Bollinger Bands widened significantly during the late hours of the trading day, reflecting increased volatility and uncertainty in the market. The price closed near the lower band, which is typical during oversold conditions. The contraction in the bands earlier in the day had signaled a period of consolidation, but the recent expansion suggests a possible breakout is imminent, either to the upside or downside.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked after 6:00 PM ET, with the highest volume candle occurring at 9:00 PM ET, with 2,248.53 in volume and $97,251 in turnover. This coincided with the strongest bearish move of the session. The divergence between volume and price action is minimal, meaning the bearish move is well-supported by increased participation. Turnover also increased during the late hours, suggesting large positions may have been liquidated.

Fibonacci Retracements

Fibonacci levels on the 15-minute chart show the price has tested the 61.8% level at $43.00 and has now fallen below the 50% level at $43.65. Daily Fibonacci levels are at $43.86 (38.2%), $43.48 (50%), and $43.10 (61.8%). The price is currently near the 78.6% level of the recent downswing, suggesting it could either find support or continue lower to the 100% extension near $41.70.

Backtest Hypothesis

A potential backtesting strategy involves entering long positions at 20SMA retests during oversold RSI conditions. Short positions could be considered when price breaks below the 100SMA with increasing volume. Given the current market environment, this strategy may yield better performance in short-term countertrend trades, especially if RSI remains in oversold territory and volume confirms the bearish move.