Market Overview for Compound/Tether (COMPUSDT)

• Price fell sharply after a brief recovery, closing 3.3% lower near $36.73
• Volatility increased significantly as price moved between $35.59 and $38.35
• Key support appears to be forming near $36.00–$36.30, with mixed volume confirmation
• Momentum remained bearish through most of the session, with no clear overbought readings
• Volume surged during the selloff but dropped on the final recovery, suggesting weak follow-through

The 24-hour period for Compound/Tether (COMPUSDT) opened at $38.10 and fell sharply to a low of $35.59 before recovering slightly to close at $36.73 by 12:00 ET. The pair traded between $38.35 (high) and $35.59 (low) with total volume of 73,835.87 COMP and a notional turnover of approximately $2,637,935. The session featured a pronounced bearish bias, with only limited attempts at bullish recovery.

Structure & Formations

The candlestick structure over the past 24 hours revealed a bearish continuation pattern, with multiple lower highs and lower lows forming after initial resistance failed around $37.90. A key support zone appears to be forming near $36.00–$36.30, with price bouncing from this area multiple times. A significant bearish engulfing pattern was visible around $36.40–$36.75 during the early morning, followed by a failed attempt at a recovery above $36.90. A potential reversal setup may be forming if price holds above $36.50 in the coming hours, but further bearish breakdowns are likely if this level is violated.

Moving Averages

Short-term moving averages on the 15-minute chart (20 and 50 periods) remain well below the current price, reinforcing the bearish bias. The 50-period line is currently positioned around $36.90, which may serve as a psychological resistance level in the near term. On the daily chart, the 50- and 100-period moving averages remain well above the current price level, indicating a prolonged bearish trend. Price may struggle to close above the 200-period moving average, which is currently around $37.50, for any meaningful bullish reversal to begin.

MACD & RSI

The MACD histogram turned negative as bearish momentum picked up, with the line crossing below the signal line around $36.60–$36.90. This divergence suggests ongoing pressure on the bearside. RSI readings remained below 40 for much of the session, with no clear oversold levels observed, indicating a lack of buying interest. The current RSI sits at approximately 32, suggesting the market is still in bearish territory but not yet at extreme levels. A move below 30 may trigger short-covering or bargain hunting, but it is unclear whether this will provide a meaningful reversal.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility expanded during the selloff, with Bollinger Bands widening as price dropped from near the upper band to near the lower band. The current price of $36.73 is sitting just above the 20-period lower band, indicating a high volatility environment. A price rejection at this level could suggest support, while a break below it would indicate further weakness. Traders may watch for a potential contraction in volatility following this expansion, which could precede a breakout or false break.

Volume & Turnover

Volume increased significantly during the early part of the selloff, with a sharp increase in trading activity between $37.00 and $36.30. However, the final recovery attempt saw much lower volume, indicating weak conviction among buyers. The notional turnover also showed a spike during the early morning hours as price fell below $36.50, suggesting increased selling pressure. The divergence between price and volume on the final recovery move raises concerns about the sustainability of any near-term bounce.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci retracement levels to the recent swing from $38.35 to $35.59, key levels to watch include 61.8% at approximately $36.50 and 38.2% at around $37.10. Price currently sits near the 61.8% level, which may act as a pivot point for the next 24 hours. A break above this level could signal short-term buyers stepping in, while a breakdown below it would likely continue the bearish trend. On the daily chart, the same Fibonacci structure shows further bearish potential if the 50% level at $36.90 is not held.

Backtest Hypothesis

The attempted retrieval of 14-period RSI data for COMPUSDT returned an error, likely due to a mismatch in the symbol or unavailability of the data. This highlights a common challenge when backtesting strategies using automated tools—namely, ensuring that the correct ticker format (e.g., COMP-USDT) and exchange are referenced. A potential next step is to confirm the precise symbol, as some data providers require specific formats like "COMP-USDT.BINANCE" or "COMP-USDT.COINBASE." Alternatively, a custom RSI calculation could be manually applied using the provided OHLCV data for the 24-hour period. Once this is resolved, a backtest could be initiated to assess whether overbought or oversold signals (e.g., RSI > 70 or < 30) would have aligned with key price movements in this timeframe. A successful backtest would provide further insights into the strategy’s viability and potential improvements for future trading decisions.