Market Overview for Compound/Tether (COMPUSDT)

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• COMPUSDT opened at $37.68 and traded between $37.63 and $38.96, closing at $38.78 on 2025-10-26 at 12:00 ET.
• Price formed a bullish reversal pattern near $37.65, followed by a strong upward rally from $37.71 to $38.96 in the early hours of trading.
• Volume surged to over 1,258 units in the first 15 minutes of the new day, confirming the bullish break.
• Price spent most of the session inside Bollinger Bands, with a recent expansion indicating rising volatility.
• RSI climbed into overbought territory near 70, suggesting a possible pullback or consolidation ahead.

1. Open, Close, and Key Metrics

On 2025-10-26, Compound/Tether (COMPUSDT) opened at $37.68 at 12:00 ET−1 and closed at $38.78 at 12:00 ET, with a high of $38.96 and a low of $37.63 over the 24-hour period. The total traded volume was approximately 13,380.99 units, with a notional turnover of ~$508,100, based on volume-weighted average prices in the dataset. Price action suggests a strong bullish shift after 00:00 ET, especially after the 00:15 ET-0 candle.

2. Structure & Key Levels

A critical support level appears to be forming near $37.65, where price found a low on the first candle and bounced, confirming it as a short-term floor. Resistance levels are emerging around $38.80–$38.96, where price tested and briefly consolidated before dipping slightly at the 12:00 ET close. A notable bullish engulfing pattern can be seen in the 00:15–00:30 ET-0 timeframe, signaling a potential reversal and breakout from a downward trend. A doji formed around $38.25 at 05:15–05:30 ET-0, indicating indecision and a possible pause in the upward momentum.

3. Moving Averages and Bollinger Bands

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages are both trending upward, with the 50SMA lagging but still below the current price, indicating bullish momentum. The Bollinger Bands are expanding, particularly after the 00:00–01:00 ET-0 window, reflecting increased volatility. Price remains within the bands, showing that while the move is strong, it has not yet broken into a breakout pattern. For the daily chart, the 50, 100, and 200-period SMAs are not available from this dataset but would be critical for longer-term positioning.

4. MACD and RSI

The MACD histogram turned positive in the early hours of the new day, aligning with the price reversal and confirming bullish momentum. The RSI climbed to overbought levels (~70) around 09:30–10:00 ET-0, suggesting an increased likelihood of a near-term pullback or consolidation phase. However, given the strong volume confirmation during the upward leg, the overbought condition could signal a continuation if buyers remain aggressive.

Backtest Hypothesis

To assess the reliability of the $38.70 support and $38.80 resistance levels identified in this 24-hour period, a backtesting strategy could be applied using historical COMPUSDT data from Binance (BINANCE: COMPUSDT). The plan is to isolate events where the price touched either the support or resistance levels and analyze the average performance post-event. For example, if the price touched the $38.70 level and then rebounded, what was the average return over the next 3 to 7 days? Conversely, if the $38.80 resistance was broken, how often did the trend continue versus consolidate? This would include calculating average returns, maximum drawdowns, and optimal holding periods to evaluate the robustness of the strategy. Visualizing the results in an Event-Backtest dashboard would allow for a clearer understanding of the levels’ significance.