Market Overview for Compound/Tether (COMPUSDT)

• COMP/USDT traded higher in 24 hours, closing near the session high of $44.56 on rising volume.
• A bullish breakout above 44.41 was confirmed with strong volume and momentum.
• RSI and MACD show bullish momentum, but price near Bollinger Band upper edge suggests caution.
• Volume surged 43% in final 3 hours, confirming late-session strength.

At 12:00 ET−1 on 2025-09-15, Compound/Tether (COMPUSDT) opened at $43.49, traded between $43.16 and $44.62, and closed at $44.45 at 12:00 ET on 2025-09-16. The 24-hour volume totaled 22,012.198 tokens with $974,120 in notional turnover.

Structure & Formations

The past 24 hours saw a strong bullish reversal after a key 15-minute bearish rejection at 43.24–43.29. A bullish engulfing pattern emerged at 44.12–44.20, followed by a strong 15-minute candle closing at 44.56 on heavy volume. A doji at 44.16–44.18 suggests potential exhaustion near the 44.41–44.46 resistance zone.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period moving average crossed above the 50-period line, signaling a bullish crossover. The 50-period MA is currently at $44.09, slightly below the current close. On the daily chart, the price remains above both the 50 and 200-period MAs, maintaining a medium-term bullish stance.

MACD & RSI

The 15-minute MACD crossed into positive territory, with a strong bullish histogram growing in the final 3 hours. RSI surged to 67, nearing overbought territory. On the 1-hour chart, RSI reached 69, indicating potential for a pullback.

Bollinger Bands

Price traded in a tight range for most of the session, but the final 15-minute candles saw a breakout above the upper Bollinger Band, suggesting increasing volatility and a potential continuation of the bullish move.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked in the final 4.5 hours of the session, reaching over $145,000 in notional turnover between 08:00 and 08:45 ET. The volume-to-price correlation was strong during this period, indicating real demand rather than a washout.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci retracement levels to the recent swing from 43.16 to 44.62, key levels include:
- 38.2% at $43.95
- 61.8% at $44.42
- 78.6% at $44.60
Price is currently near the 61.8% retracement level and shows potential to test the 78.6% mark if bullish momentum continues.

Backtest Hypothesis

A potential backtest strategy could be to go long on COMPUSDT when a 15-minute bullish engulfing pattern forms above the 20-period moving average, confirmed by a breakout above the upper Bollinger Band and a closing price above the 61.8% Fibonacci level. A stop-loss could be placed below the 43.87 support, with a target at 44.62 or the 78.6% retracement level. This setup aligns with today’s price action and could be tested for consistency in similar market conditions.

The forward-looking view for the next 24 hours is cautiously bullish, with potential to test the $44.62–$44.65 resistance cluster. However, a pullback to the 44.16–44.20 zone could be expected if RSI overbought conditions reverse. Investors should watch for a failure to hold above 44.41 as a potential bearish signal.