Market Overview for Compound/Tether (COMPUSDT) – 24-Hour Analysis

• Compound/Tether (COMPUSDT) fell sharply after 19:30 ET on 2025-10-10, dropping from $40.92 to $23.84 before rebounding to close near $33.61.
• The 24-hour range spanned $41.96 to $9.81, showing high volatility and potential bearish exhaustion.
• Volume spiked dramatically during the selloff, confirming bearish momentum with lower trading intensity during the rebound.
• The RSI hit oversold levels below 20, suggesting a potential short-term bounce, though trend remains bearish.
• Price closed near the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level of the major low-to-high swing, hinting at near-term support.

The Compound/Tether pair (COMPUSDT) opened at $41.63 on 2025-10-10 at 12:00 ET, peaked at $41.96, and bottomed at $9.81 before closing at $33.61 on 2025-10-11 at 12:00 ET. The total volume for the 24-hour window was 452,065.64, while the total turnover amounted to $14,772,461.62, indicating heightened market participation during the sharp drop and partial recovery.

On the 15-minute chart, the price formed several bearish patterns, including a strong engulfing pattern at the peak of the candle on 1930 ET, confirming a bearish reversal. Key support levels emerged near $28.70 and $31.49, both aligning with recent Fibonacci retracement levels and psychological round numbers. Resistance was identified at $33.61 and $35.52, which coincide with prior highs and potential confluence zones of trendlines and moving averages. The 20-period and 50-period moving averages on the 15-minute chart showed a bearish crossover, reinforcing the short-term downward bias.

The MACD histogram turned negative following the sharp selloff, indicating weakening bullish momentum and strong bearish control. The RSI bottomed near 17 during the low, suggesting a possible rebound, though overbought levels have not yet been reached, indicating the downtrend may not yet be exhausted. Bollinger Bands showed a sharp expansion during the selloff and have since begun to contract, suggesting a potential period of consolidation ahead. Price is currently positioned within the upper 1 standard deviation of the bands on the 15-minute timeframe, indicating a period of high volatility that could precede a directional breakout.

The volume profile tells a compelling story: the selloff was confirmed by surging volume, particularly during the candle at 1930 ET, when over $14 million of turnover occurred in a single 15-minute period. In contrast, the rebound from $23.84 to $33.61 occurred on lower volume, indicating weaker conviction from buyers. A divergence between price and volume during the recovery phase may signal a potential false breakout or a shallow rebound. Turnover and volume are showing signs of exhaustion in the higher price range, suggesting a retest of key support levels in the near term is possible.

Applying Fibonacci retracements to the major swing from $9.81 to $41.96, the current price at $33.61 is approximately 61.8% of the retracement level, a key psychological level that could serve as both support and resistance. On the daily timeframe, the 50, 100, and 200-period moving averages are all in bearish alignment, suggesting the broader trend remains bearish. However, the price has begun to retest the 61.8% level, which may provide an entry point for traders anticipating a short-term bounce.

Backtest Hypothesis

A potential backtesting strategy could involve entering long positions on the 15-minute chart when the price bounces off the 61.8% Fibonacci level and closes above the 20-period moving average, with a stop-loss placed below the 38.2% retracement level. A short position could be initiated if the price breaks below the $28.70 support with increasing volume, with a target aligned with the 50-period moving average on the daily chart. This dual-directional approach would aim to capture both short-term rebounds and continuation of the bearish trend, while managing risk with clear technical triggers.