Market Overview: Compound/Tether (COMPUSDT) 24-Hour Analysis (2025-10-25)

• COMPUSDT rose 1.57% on the 24-hour period, with a key bullish breakout above the 37.8–37.9 resistance cluster.
• High volatility observed during overnight hours, with a sharp 01:30–02:30 ET rally pushing price to a 24-hour high of 38.27.
• Volume increased steadily overnight, confirming bullish price action with no significant divergence observed.
• RSI reached overbought territory after the 01:30 ET surge, suggesting potential for a consolidation phase.
• Bollinger Bands showed a period of contraction early in the session, followed by a sharp expansion confirming a breakout.

The 24-hour period for Compound/Tether (COMPUSDT) began at $37.57 on 2025-10-24 at 12:00 ET, reaching an intraday high of $38.27 and a low of $37.30, closing at $37.69 as of 12:00 ET on 2025-10-25. Total volume amounted to 17,815.45 units traded, while notional turnover was approximately $666,600. The price action featured a key bullish breakout from a 37.8–37.9 consolidation range, supported by rising volume and strong order flow.

On the 15-minute chart, Compound/Tether showed a sequence of strong Bullish Engulfing and Bullish Inverted Hammer patterns around 19:00–20:30 ET and 01:30–02:30 ET, which preceded key upward moves. The 20- and 50-period moving averages on the 15-minute timeframe were closely aligned during the breakout, reducing internal divergence. A Fibonacci retracement of the previous bearish swing from 38.27 to 37.57 placed key levels at 37.79 (38.2%) and 37.94 (61.8%), both of which acted as temporary resistance but were later cleared with strong volume.

The MACD crossed above the signal line during the overnight surge, confirming a bullish momentum shift, while the RSI reached 68–70, suggesting overbought conditions and potential for a near-term pullback. Bollinger Bands showed a contraction in the early part of the session (pre-20:00 ET), followed by a sharp expansion during the breakout phase, reinforcing the likelihood of a continuation or consolidation pattern. Volume continued to rise as the price moved higher, with no material divergence noted between price and volume, reinforcing the strength of the move.

The Fibonacci levels at 37.79 and 37.94 proved to be critical in the 15-minute timeframe. The price broke through the 37.94 level on strong volume around 02:30 ET, with the 61.8% retracement now acting as a dynamic support. On the daily chart, the 50-, 100-, and 200-period moving averages remain in a bullish alignment, supporting a medium-term bullish bias. The current price remains above the 200-day MA, which continues to act as a strong psychological and technical support level. Looking ahead, a retest of the 37.94–38.02 range could trigger renewed bullish momentum or a consolidation phase, depending on order flow and macro conditions.

Backtest Hypothesis

Given the strong Bullish Engulfing and Inverted Hammer patterns observed in the 15-minute timeframe, particularly around 19:00–20:30 ET and 01:30–02:30 ET, these candlestick formations could serve as reliable entry signals for a short-term bullish strategy. The backtest would involve identifying such patterns on a historical dataset and executing a 3-day holding trade with an initial stop-loss below the pattern's support and a target based on the size of the engulfing candle or a Fibonacci extension. A similar approach was previously described in the backtest request for the ticker “BLSH.N”; however, since that data was unavailable, the same logic can be applied to COMPUSDT. Using the signal dates from 2022-01-01 to 2025-10-25, the strategy can be compared to a baseline of holding the asset (HOLD.P) over the same period. The results would help determine whether these technical signals have added value in capturing short-term momentum in the pair.