Market Overview for Compound/Tether (COMPUSDT) on 2025-10-05

• Price rallied 7.4% on 24-hour high volume, with a bullish breakout above $43.00.
• RSI surged into overbought territory while MACD crossed above zero, confirming bullish momentum.
• Bollinger Bands expanded with price near the upper band, reflecting high volatility.
• Volume surged in the final 6 hours, indicating strong institutional participation.
• Fibonacci retracement levels suggest possible consolidation near $43.75 and $43.40.

15-Minute Price Action and Structure

Compound/Tether (COMPUSDT) opened the 24-hour window at $42.25 on 2025-10-04 and closed at $43.38 the following day. The pair reached a high of $44.12 and a low of $42.25, with a closing price of $43.38 at 12:00 ET. Total 24-hour volume was 32,457.61 COMP, and notional turnover amounted to $1,372,955.53. The price action showed a strong and sustained rally across the final 12 hours, with key support at $42.58 and resistance forming at $43.53. A bullish engulfing pattern emerged at the 2:45 AM ET time frame, followed by a continuation of upward momentum.

Moving Averages and Trend Confirmation

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages crossed above the price in the last 6 hours, confirming a strong uptrend. The 50-period line acted as dynamic support during pullbacks. On the daily chart, the 50-period moving average appears to be catching the price near $42.99, while the 200-period line lags significantly lower, suggesting the market is not yet in a confirmed long-term uptrend but is showing strong near-term strength.

Momentum Indicators (MACD and RSI)

The RSI for COMPUSDT hit overbought levels around 75 in the final 4 hours of the window, indicating strong bullish momentum but potential for a pullback. The MACD crossed above zero and remained in positive territory, with the histogram expanding through the day, reinforcing the strength of the rally. Divergence between RSI and price action was not observed, which supports the continuation of the current upward trend.

Bollinger Bands and Volatility Profile

Volatility expanded as the price moved from the lower Bollinger band near $42.58 to the upper band at $44.12. The widening of the bands confirmed increasing uncertainty and activity in the market, particularly during the late evening and early morning trading hours. The price closed near the upper band, suggesting traders may consider a potential pullback to the middle band as a possible entry point for long positions.

Volume and Turnover Dynamics

Volume surged in the last 6 hours, with the highest 15-minute volume recorded at 2,962.296 COMP (around $43.46). The volume profile shows a clear increase in participation during the bullish phase, with turnover aligning closely with price action. There was no significant divergence observed between volume and price, which supports the idea that the rally is backed by strong buying pressure rather than speculative or wash-trading behavior.

Fibonacci Retracements and Key Levels

Using the 15-minute high at $44.12 and the low at $42.58, Fibonacci retracement levels indicate potential consolidation zones near 38.2% at $43.40 and 61.8% at $43.13. The price closed near $43.38, suggesting a potential retest of the 38.2% level in the next 24 hours. On the daily chart, key Fibonacci levels based on the recent swing high at $44.12 and the previous swing low at $42.25 suggest critical support at $43.00 and resistance at $43.75.

Backtest Hypothesis

A potential backtest strategy could be based on a long bias when the price breaks above the 20-period moving average on the 15-minute chart, confirmed by a bullish candlestick pattern and a RSI above 55. Entries could be triggered after a retest of the breakout level, with stop-loss placed below the most recent support. This approach would aim to capture short-term momentum while managing risk with tight stops. The recent price action aligns well with such a strategy, particularly during the late evening to early morning rally.