Market Overview for Compound/Tether (COMPUSDT) on 2025-10-01

• Price surged 4.9% over 24 hours, breaking above $41.00 for the first time since early October 2025.
• Volatility expanded as the pair traded within a range of $40.61–$42.74, showing no sign of near-term consolidation.
• Volume spiked during the 15-minute candle at 09:00 ET, coinciding with a sharp upward move to $42.50.
• RSI approached overbought territory, suggesting potential pullback risk if the upward move stalls.
• Bollinger Bands widened in response to increased volatility, with price closing near the upper band at the end of the period.

The Compound/Tether (COMPUSDT) pair opened at $40.65 on 2025-10-01 at 12:00 ET-1 and closed at $42.30 as of 12:00 ET on 2025-10-01, reaching a high of $42.74 and a low of $40.61 during the 24-hour period. Total volume amounted to approximately 29,298.95 units, with a notional turnover of around $1,226,567.97.

In the 15-minute chart, the price displayed a bullish breakout pattern, with a strong move above $41.00 following a consolidation phase. The 20-period and 50-period moving averages were both bullish, with the 20-period MA crossing above the 50-period MA during the early morning hours. On the daily chart, the 50, 100, and 200-period moving averages were all trending higher, reinforcing a medium-term bullish bias. A key resistance appears near $42.70, with a potential support level forming at $41.60.

MACD showed a strong positive divergence early in the day, confirming the upward momentum. However, RSI approached overbought territory after the breakout, suggesting a potential pullback could follow if the price fails to consolidate near $42.50. Volatility, as measured by the width of Bollinger Bands, expanded significantly during the breakout phase, with the price closing near the upper band, signaling potential exhaustion.

Volume increased sharply during the breakout phase, especially around the 09:00 ET candle when the price surged toward $42.50. A divergence between price and volume was not observed, indicating the move was well-supported. Fibonacci retracement levels on the recent 15-minute swing showed the price testing the 61.8% level at $42.17 before surging past it. On the daily chart, the price is now approaching the 61.8% retracement level of the broader uptrend, which could act as a key inflection point.

Looking ahead, the next 24 hours could see consolidation if the price finds resistance near $42.70 or pulls back to test $41.60. Investors should monitor volume patterns and RSI behavior for signs of a reversal. A break above $42.75 with increasing volume could signal a stronger move, while a drop below $41.60 could reignite bearish sentiment.

Backtest Hypothesis
A backtesting strategy based on the 20-period and 50-period moving average crossover—where a long signal is triggered when the 20-period MA crosses above the 50-period MA—would have aligned with the recent price action on COMPUSDT. The strategy could have captured the upward move starting at 08:45 ET, when the 20-period MA crossed the 50-period MA during the early breakout. Adding a trailing stop-loss at the 50-period MA could have protected gains during the consolidation periods and provided an exit point in case of a reversal. Incorporating RSI as a secondary filter—holding only when RSI is below 50—could have improved the signal-to-noise ratio, filtering out weaker long entries during overbought conditions. A close below the 61.8% Fibonacci level at $41.60 would be a key signal to close the long position or initiate a short.