Market Overview for Compound/Tether (COMPUSDT) on 2025-09-18

• • •

• COMPUSDT surged 5.7% in 24 hours, breaking above 45.00 after a bullish reversal at 43.85.
• Volume spiked to 16,917,632.5 units with a clear divergence above 46.00, confirming institutional participation.
• RSI crossed 60, indicating rising momentum but no imminent overbought signal.
• MACD turned positive mid-session with a bullish crossover, reinforcing the upside case.
• Price remains above 20SMA, suggesting continuation of the bullish trend with 44.00 as key support.

The Compound/Tether (COMPUSDT) pair opened at $43.87 on 2025-09-17 at 12:00 ET and closed at $45.82 on 2025-09-18 at 12:00 ET, with a high of $46.52 and a low of $43.61. Total trading volume for the 24-hour period was 16,917,632.5 units, and notional turnover reached approximately $756,076,130 (assuming USD prices averaged ~$44.65).

Structure & Formations

Price displayed a strong bullish breakout above 45.00, following a key 15-minute bullish engulfing pattern at 43.85. A large bullish marubozu appeared at 46.29 (03:15 ET), indicating strong institutional buying. Resistance levels emerged at 46.25 and 46.49, both of which were retested but held, suggesting consolidation before a potential breakout above 46.50.

Moving Averages

The 20SMA (15-min) was at 45.04 by close of the 24-hour period, while the 50SMA was at 44.98, supporting a continued bullish bias. The 200SMA (daily) was at 44.15, with price comfortably above, indicating a longer-term uptrend. The 50EMA crossed above the 100SMA mid-day, signaling an increase in short-term bullish momentum.

MACD & RSI

The 15-minute MACD line crossed above the signal line around 19:00 ET, forming a bullish crossover and staying positive throughout most of the session. RSI climbed from 50 to 62 during the rally, indicating growing momentum but without entering overbought territory. A retest of the 50 RSI level at 45.00 (00:30 ET) showed strong buying interest, reinforcing the bullish case.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility expanded significantly between 18:00 and 20:00 ET as price traded within the upper 2σ band. The bands widened again after 22:30 ET, suggesting renewed accumulation. Price closed near the upper band on 09-18, indicating strong conviction in the bullish trend and potential for a breakout if 46.50 is cleared.

Volume & Turnover

Volume showed a clear spike at 18:15 ET as price tested 44.21, followed by a sustained increase through 03:00 ET. Notional turnover aligned with volume spikes, indicating genuine accumulation rather than wash trading. A divergence emerged as price dipped to 45.77 at 00:30 ET but volume remained above average, suggesting that buyers controlled the short-term price action.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci levels to the 43.61–46.52 swing, key retracement levels are at 45.34 (38.2%) and 44.94 (61.8%). Price bounced from the 38.2% level and tested the 61.8% level at 45.00 with a successful rebound, reinforcing the validity of the bullish trend. A break above 46.52 could push to 47.00 as the next Fibonacci extension.

Backtest Hypothesis

A potential backtesting strategy involves a long entry on a 15-minute bullish engulfing pattern, with a stop loss placed below the pattern’s low and a target at the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement. Given the recent 43.85 engulfing pattern and subsequent rally, this strategy appears well-aligned with the observed price behavior. The MACD and RSI confirmations add a layer of momentum validation, suggesting the setup could offer a favorable risk-reward ratio.