Market Overview for Compound/Tether (COMPUSDT) – 2025-09-18 12:00 ET

• Price surged 7.6% in 24 hours, forming a bullish impulse after consolidating within a tight range.
• RSI and MACD confirmed strength, with volume spiking 57% in the final 6 hours.
• Key support at $45.50 and resistance at $46.40 defined a volatile 15-minute cycle.
• Bollinger Bands expanded, signaling increased volatility and potential breakouts.
• Divergence between price and turnover noted in late ET hours, suggesting caution ahead.

Compound/Tether (COMPUSDT) opened at $43.87 on 2025-09-17 12:00 ET and closed at $45.61 on 2025-09-18 12:00 ET, reaching a high of $46.49 and a low of $43.61. Total volume across the 24-hour window was 218,246.93 COMP, with a notional turnover of $9,987,000. The pair showed strong bullish momentum in the final 8 hours of the cycle.

Structure & Formations

Price formed a series of higher highs and higher lows between 18:00 and 23:45 ET, culminating in a strong bullish engulfing pattern as it broke above the $46.0 level. A doji formed at the 02:30 ET candle, signaling indecision and potential consolidation. The daily structure showed a broad ascending triangle forming, with support at $45.50 and resistance at $46.40.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages were closely aligned and trending upward, with price staying above both. The daily chart showed a broader bullish alignment, with the 50-period MA at $44.75 and the 200-period MA at $43.50, supporting the recent bullish momentum. Price remains comfortably above key averages, reinforcing the bullish bias.

MACD & RSI

MACD showed a strong bullish crossover in the 18:00–22:00 ET window, with positive divergence in the final 2 hours. RSI reached 68 at the peak of the rally but has since pulled back to 58, indicating strong momentum without overbought conditions. Divergence between the RSI and price was noted in the final 3 hours, hinting at a possible pullback or consolidation phase.

Bollinger Bands

Bollinger Bands expanded significantly during the rally, with price trading near the upper band between 19:30 and 22:30 ET. The lower band acted as support during a pullback in the 02:30–03:30 ET range, with price rebounding strongly. Volatility contraction was observed between 05:45 and 08:30 ET, followed by a breakout that pushed price above the upper band, reinforcing the bullish setup.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked to $3.2M in the 19:15–20:30 ET period, with a second surge of $2.1M in the final 6 hours. Notional turnover increased by 57% compared to the initial 6 hours of the 24-hour cycle. Divergence appeared in the final 4 hours, as volume declined slightly while price continued to rise, suggesting possible exhaustion in the short term.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci to the recent 15-minute swing from $43.61 to $46.49, key levels include 61.8% at $45.35 and 38.2% at $44.87. The 61.8% level coincided with a consolidation phase at 03:00–04:30 ET before a strong rebound. On the daily chart, the 61.8% retracement level of the larger $43.61–$46.49 swing is at $45.01, which acted as a psychological level before the final breakout.

Backtest Hypothesis

The backtest strategy involves entering a long position when price breaks above the 61.8% Fibonacci level and the 50-period moving average aligns with the 20-period on a 15-minute chart. A stop-loss is placed at the 38.2% retracement level, while a target is set at the upper Bollinger Band. Over the past 24 hours, this strategy would have triggered a buy at $45.30 and exited at $46.49, yielding a potential 2.6% gain. The strategy is best applied during high-volume periods when the MACD and RSI confirm a bullish crossover, as seen between 18:00 and 22:00 ET.