Market Overview for Coin98/Tether (C98USDT)

Summary
• Price drifted lower, forming bearish patterns, closing near the session low at 0.0339.
• Volatility remained elevated, with the largest intraday range hitting 0.0341 to 0.0321.
• Volume surged during the 19:45–20:00 ET timeframe, coinciding with a sharp price decline.

Coin98/Tether (C98USDT) opened at 0.0341 on 2025-11-12, reaching a high of 0.0348 before falling to a low of 0.0321 and closing at 0.0339 on 2025-11-13 at 12:00 ET. The 24-hour volume totaled 26,953,569.3 and the total notional turnover amounted to approximately 913.44 USD. The price action reflected bearish pressure amid mixed short-term volatility.

Structure & Formations

Price formed a bearish engulfing pattern during the 19:45–20:00 ET candle, signaling potential continuation of the downtrend. A minor bullish reversal appeared at the end of the session, particularly between 11:15–12:00 ET, but failed to push above the 0.0342 level. Key support levels to watch are 0.0335 and 0.0330, with resistance at 0.0342 and 0.0346.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages are both bearish, with the 20 MA at 0.0338 and the 50 MA at 0.0337. The price is trading slightly above the 20 MA, suggesting potential for a short-term bounce. On the daily chart, the 50-period MA at 0.0335 and 200-period MA at 0.0330 suggest a longer-term bearish bias.

MACD & RSI

The MACD line has been negative and diverging from price in the last 6 hours, reinforcing bearish momentum. The RSI currently reads 48, indicating neutral territory. A drop below 40 could signal oversold conditions, though the recent price drop may not yet have reached that threshold.

Bollinger Bands

The price has been oscillating between the lower and middle Bollinger bands for most of the session, with the most recent 15-minute candle touching the lower band at 0.0335. This suggests a period of low volatility and potential for a mean reversion rally in the near term.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked during the 19:45–20:00 ET candle, with a large notional turnover of 832,985.7 USD, coinciding with a sharp drop to 0.0326. A divergence between declining price and rising volume suggests strong bearish conviction at current levels.

Fibonacci Retracements

Recent 15-minute swings show price retesting the 38.2% retracement level of the 0.0321 to 0.0348 range at 0.0335. This level appears to be holding as support. On the daily chart, the 61.8% retracement of a prior bullish move is at 0.0338, which may now serve as resistance in the near term.

Backtest Hypothesis

The Bullish-Engulfing strategy, optimized for 1–3-day holding periods, has historically underperformed on C98USDT, with a total return of -71.3% and an annualized return of -12.7%. The strategy appears to be ineffective in this market due to high volatility and frequent false breakouts. The negative Sharpe ratio of -0.29 suggests poor risk-adjusted returns, and the average trade return of -0.74% implies consistent losses. These results underscore the importance of integrating tighter risk controls, such as stop-loss levels, when deploying candlestick strategies on low-liquidity pairs like C98USDT.