Market Overview: Coin98/Tether (C98USDT) 24-Hour Analysis

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• C98USDT dropped from 0.0462 to 0.0423 in 24 hours amid a high-volume breakdown below key support.
• A bearish divergence emerged in RSI and MACD, suggesting exhaustion in the short-term rally.
• Volatility spiked during the breakdown, with a sharp move below the 0.0440 psychological level.
• Bollinger Bands expanded as the price pushed lower, confirming elevated volatility.
• Volume surged during the early morning ET sell-off, confirming bearish sentiment.

Market Snapshot

At 12:00 ET–1 on 2025-09-25, C98USDT opened at 0.0458 and traded as high as 0.0463 before closing at 0.0423 at 12:00 ET on 2025-09-26. The price low during the 24-hour period was 0.0415. Total volume reached 172,708,362.3, with a notional turnover of approximately $7,367,402 (based on weighted average prices). The price action reflects a significant bearish reversal from recent resistance levels.

Structure & Formations

The price of C98USDT broke decisively below the 0.0440 psychological level on high volume, forming a bearish breakdown pattern. A large bearish engulfing pattern was evident on the 2025-09-25 17:30–18:00 ET candle, confirming a shift in sentiment. A doji formed during the 03:00–03:15 ET window on 2025-09-26, indicating a temporary pause in the sell-off, but the price resumed the downtrend shortly after.

Moving Averages and MACD/RSI

On the 15-minute chart, the 20- and 50-period moving averages are both below price levels, reflecting a bearish bias. The MACD line crossed below the signal line with declining histogram bars, reinforcing bearish momentum. RSI has dipped into oversold territory around 28–30 but remains below 40 for the majority of the period, suggesting continued bearish pressure.

Bollinger Bands and Volatility

Bollinger Bands expanded significantly during the breakdown phase, with the price closing near the lower band in the 10:30–10:45 ET and 12:00–12:15 ET candles. This volatility expansion aligns with the sharp sell-off and may indicate a temporary overreaction. If the price rebounds above the 0.0435–0.0440 range, the upper band could act as a dynamic resistance.

Volume and Turnover

Volume spiked during the breakdown period, particularly on the 09:45–10:00 ET and 10:15–10:30 ET candles, with notional turnover surging on those intervals. The price action is well-supported by volume, indicating conviction in the bearish move. A divergence between volume and price has not yet appeared, suggesting the move may have more room to the downside.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci retracement to the recent 0.0462–0.0423 swing, the price has reached the 61.8% level (~0.0432). This level may serve as a temporary support for any near-term bounce. On the daily chart, the 50% retracement of a larger bearish leg remains untested but could become relevant if the trend reverses.

Backtest Hypothesis

Given the strong bearish confirmation through volume, price action, and technical indicators, a backtest strategy based on a short entry after a breakdown of key support (e.g., 0.0440) with a stop above the recent swing high (0.0445–0.0447) could be considered. A trailing stop at the 50-period moving average on the 15-minute chart may help secure gains while staying in the trend. This approach aligns with the observed momentum and divergences seen in the MACD and RSI, making it a viable candidate for further backtesting over similar price action patterns.