Market Overview for Coin98/Tether (C98USDT) – 2025-10-03

• Price surged from 0.0591 to 0.0682 on strong volume before consolidating.
• Bullish momentum flagged by MACD crossover and RSI overbought levels near 70.
• Volatility expanded with Bollinger Band breakout and high notional turnover.
• Fibonacci 61.8% at ~0.0635 and 78.6% at ~0.0655 key levels for near-term reversal.

The Coin98/Tether (C98USDT) pair opened at 0.0591 on 2025-10-02 at 12:00 ET and closed at 0.0631 at 12:00 ET on 2025-10-03. The 24-hour candle reached a high of 0.0682 and a low of 0.0591, with total volume of 350,982,780.5 and a notional turnover of $21,516,938. Price action featured a strong upward breakout before late-day consolidation, indicating mixed momentum and potential reversal risks.

Structure & Formations

The 24-hour chart displayed a bullish breakout pattern, with a strong move above the 0.0655 psychological level and a key swing low at 0.0601. A morning session engulfing pattern and an evening session bearish harami signaled possible exhaustion in both directions. Key support levels were identified at 0.0629 (Fib 38.2%) and 0.0601 (Fib 61.8%), with resistance at 0.0655 (Fib 78.6%) and 0.0682 (session high). The market appears to be navigating between these key levels with moderate retracements.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the price closed above the 20-period SMA at ~0.0646 and above the 50-period SMA at ~0.0641, suggesting a short-term bullish bias. On the daily chart, the 50-period SMA was at ~0.0639 and the 200-period SMA at ~0.0630, indicating a potential golden cross scenario forming. The 100-period SMA at ~0.0635 added further support to the idea that C98USDT is consolidating above major moving averages, with bullish momentum likely to persist if this trend holds.

MACD & RSI

The MACD line crossed above the signal line in the morning, indicating a bullish crossover that coincided with the price breakout. However, by midday, the RSI peaked at 72, suggesting overbought conditions. This implies that while short-term bullish momentum is intact, traders should be cautious about overextended moves and the risk of a pullback. A bearish divergence between RSI and price in the afternoon session added to the uncertainty.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility increased significantly during the morning surge, pushing prices outside the upper Bollinger Band at ~0.0672. This breakout was followed by a contraction in the bands during the late afternoon, signaling a potential period of consolidation or a reversal. As of the close, the price was inside the bands but near the upper threshold, with the 20-period BB width expanding from 0.0019 to 0.0048, suggesting increased market activity and potential for further swings.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked during the morning surge, with the 19:15–20:00 ET period (UTC+8) seeing the highest single-session volume at 9,991,489.0999999, corresponding to a notional value of $674,444. This was followed by a drop in volume during the afternoon consolidation phase, indicating potential exhaustion in the bullish move. The divergence between high volume during the breakout and low volume during the pullback suggests mixed conviction and a possible reversal scenario.

Fibonacci Retracements

Fibonacci retracements applied to the 0.0591–0.0682 swing identified key levels at 38.2% (~0.0635), 50% (~0.0636), and 61.8% (~0.0644). On the daily chart, retracements based on the broader 0.0601–0.0682 range highlighted 61.8% at ~0.0655 as a critical resistance level. Price consolidation around 0.0635–0.0644 in the evening suggests that buyers may be testing the 50% Fib level before either a breakout or a reversal.

Backtest Hypothesis

A potential backtest strategy could involve a breakout approach, entering long on a close above the 0.0655 resistance level with a stop-loss just below 0.0635. Alternatively, a bearish trade could be triggered on a close below the 0.0630 psychological support with a target at 0.0601. Given the recent RSI divergence and the volatility contraction in the Bollinger Bands, a mean-reversion approach may also be viable, especially as the price approaches the 50-period SMA. The morning engulfing pattern and the evening harami could serve as entry and exit signals in a discretionary or semi-automated system.