Market Overview: Chiliz/Tether (CHZUSDT) – September 23, 2025

• Chiliz/Tether (CHZUSDT) traded in a tight range but showed a late-day bullish reversal after 22:00 ET.
• Price formed a bullish engulfing pattern near 0.0387–0.0389, suggesting possible short-term support.
• RSI and MACD indicated moderate momentum recovery post 00:00 ET, with no extreme overbought or oversold conditions.
• Volume increased in the final 6 hours, suggesting growing participation.
• Bollinger Bands expanded, indicating rising volatility as the pair approached key psychological levels.

The Chiliz/Tether pair (CHZUSDT) opened at $0.0389 on 2025-09-22 12:00 ET, and over the next 24 hours, it reached a high of $0.0399 and a low of $0.0384. As of 2025-09-23 12:00 ET, the price closed at $0.03975. The total notional turnover was approximately $173.5 million, with a total volume of 4.35 billion CHZ traded.

The 24-hour OHLC data revealed a consolidation phase early in the session, followed by a breakout attempt in the overnight session. A key bullish engulfing pattern formed around $0.0388–$0.0389, suggesting a reversal from bearish to bullish momentum. A notable doji appeared at $0.03856, indicating indecision at lower levels. Key support levels appear to be forming around $0.0386 and $0.0384, with resistance levels at $0.0391 and $0.0396. The price may find a short-term ceiling near $0.0398 as it struggles to break through the upper Bollinger Band, indicating rising volatility and a potential test of upper resistance.

MACD lines showed a bullish crossover in the overnight hours, confirming the breakout attempt, while RSI remained in a neutral zone between 50 and 60, indicating balanced buying and selling pressure. The 20-period moving average on the 15-minute chart crossed above the 50-period line during the 03:00–04:00 ET window, signaling a potential shift in sentiment. Bollinger Bands expanded significantly during the last 6 hours, aligning with higher trading volumes and increased price range, which may indicate a potential continuation of the upward trend.

The Fibonacci retracement levels from the recent swing low at $0.0384 and high at $0.0399 suggest that 61.8% retracement aligns with $0.0394, a level that was tested and held in the past 6 hours. The price may continue to test this level over the next 24 hours. Notable volume spikes occurred between 02:00 and 03:00 ET, and again between 07:00 and 09:00 ET, with corresponding price increases. A divergence in volume and price movement was observed between 03:30 and 05:00 ET, where volume decreased despite a price rise, which may hint at weak conviction.

Backtest Hypothesis
The backtesting strategy described involves using a combination of the 20/50-period moving averages on the 15-minute chart to identify potential entry points, supplemented by RSI as a momentum filter. The strategy looks for a golden cross (20 MA above 50 MA) and RSI above 50 to enter long positions. Stop-loss is placed below the 20 MA, while take-profit is set at the nearest Fibonacci 61.8% retracement level. Given the recent formation of a bullish engulfing pattern and the 20/50 MA crossover observed in the overnight hours, the conditions are favorable for testing this strategy. However, the potential divergence in volume during the 03:30–05:00 ET period suggests the need for caution in confirming the strength of the bullish bias.