Market Overview: Chiliz/Tether (CHZUSDT) 24-Hour Technical Analysis

Summary
• Price dropped 0.03404 to 0.03219, with bearish momentum dominating after 18:00 ET.
• High volume at 0.0332–0.0336 suggests key short-term support/resistance.
• RSI showed oversold levels, hinting at potential short-term bounce.

Chiliz/Tether (CHZUSDT) opened at $0.03394 on 2025-11-11 at 12:00 ET and closed at $0.03219 by 12:00 ET on 2025-11-12. During this period, the pair reached a high of $0.03406 and a low of $0.03212. Total traded volume was approximately 22,743,353 CHZ, and notional turnover amounted to roughly $764,177.61.

The structure of the price action suggests a bearish continuation, with bearish engulfing patterns evident around 0.0338–0.0333 and a strong bearish trend developing from 19:00 to 20:45 ET. A key support zone appears to form between 0.0329 and 0.0327, with price testing this area multiple times. Resistance appears to be consolidated above 0.0336, with failed breakouts seen in the early morning. The 20-period EMA and 50-period EMA on the 15-minute chart are trending downward, supporting the bearish bias.

Volatility has increased significantly, as reflected by the widening of Bollinger Bands during the 20:00–23:00 ET window. Price has spent much of the session below the lower Bollinger band, indicating oversold territory. RSI, at times dipping below 30, suggests the asset could be due for a near-term bounce or consolidation. However, the absence of strong bullish volume at key support levels implies the bearish trend may persist.

Fibonacci retracement levels based on the key 0.03406–0.03212 swing suggest 0.0327 as a critical 61.8% retracement level, with 0.0333 as a possible 38.2% level. The price has found temporary support at 0.0327–0.0329 multiple times. If it fails to hold this zone, a deeper correction toward 0.0320 or below could follow.

Backtest Hypothesis
The backtest of RSI-oversold events on CHZUSDT suggests limited short-term (1–10 days) profitability, with modest negative returns and win rates around 45–50%. While medium-term (15–30 days) trends show a slight positive drift of up to +2%, the statistical significance remains low. The strategy does not outperform a passive buy-and-hold benchmark in terms of risk-adjusted returns. This aligns with the current market profile, where RSI has frequently dipped into oversold territory without triggering strong reversals.

The technical indicators used in the backtest—RSI, EMA, and price behavior—have shown limited predictive power in the current bearish phase. Traders may need to incorporate additional filters, such as volatility thresholds or tighter stop-loss levels, to improve the strategy’s performance in this environment.