Market Overview for Chiliz/Tether (CHZUSDT) – 24-Hour Analysis (2025-10-07)

• CHZ/USDT declines 7.5% on 24 hours, closing at 0.04262 after a sharp drop in late ET trading.
• Volume spikes to over 9.4M in the final hour, suggesting intensified selling pressure.
• RSI dips below 30, indicating oversold territory, but no immediate reversal is evident.
• Price breaks below key 15-min support at 0.04355, with 0.04250–0.04300 forming a likely consolidation range.
• MACD turns negative and remains bearish, aligning with weak close-to-open bias.

Market Summary

Chiliz/Tether (CHZUSDT) opened at 0.04455 on October 6, 12:00 ET, reaching a 24-hour high of 0.04494 before closing at 0.04262 by 12:00 ET on October 7. Total volume over the 24-hour period was 51,922,343, with a notional turnover of approximately $2,290,600. The pair has experienced a bearish reversal, with price consolidating toward key support zones.

Structure & Formations

Price has formed a bearish continuation pattern over the past 24 hours, marked by a sharp breakdown from the 0.04455–0.0448 consolidation. A hammer candle at 0.04307 suggests tentative support at 0.04300–0.04350. A 15-minute bearish engulfing pattern was evident between 15:00 and 16:00 ET, confirming the shift in sentiment. Key resistance levels lie at 0.04425 and 0.04455, with support at 0.04350 and 0.04300.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, price closed below both the 20-period and 50-period moving averages, reinforcing short-term bearish momentum. The 50-period MA stands at 0.0442, and the 20-period MA at 0.0445, both of which have been breached with weak follow-through. On the daily chart, the 50-day MA is at 0.0437, near current price action, suggesting potential consolidation or a test of the 100-day MA at 0.0432 in the next 24–48 hours.

MACD & RSI

The MACD turned bearish as the histogram expanded below zero, signaling growing bear momentum. RSI has dipped below 30, indicating oversold conditions, though no immediate reversal is evident. The indicator remains in the 29–33 range, suggesting a possible bounce from the 0.04250–0.04300 zone, but only if volume supports it. A close above 0.04425 could reinvigorate bullish sentiment, but for now, the pair remains range-bound with a clear downward bias.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility has widened as price broke below the lower band on the 15-minute chart, reaching as low as 0.04250. This expansion suggests increased uncertainty and potential follow-through selling. The upper band currently sits near 0.0448, and the midline at 0.0437 offers a potential pivot point. If price remains below the lower band, a test of the 0.0422–0.0425 level is likely in the near term.

Volume & Turnover

Volume has surged in the final hour, with over 9.4 million CHZ traded, contributing to a $400,000 notional turnover. This aligns with the breakdown in price and confirms bearish conviction. However, turnover remains below key swing highs from earlier in the week, suggesting a potential exhaustion of selling pressure. Divergence between price and turnover has not yet emerged, indicating strong conviction in the downward move.

Fibonacci Retracements

Key Fibonacci levels for the 15-minute swing from 0.0448 to 0.0425 include the 38.2% retracement at 0.0441 and the 61.8% at 0.0436. Price is currently testing the 0.04300–0.04350 zone, which corresponds to the 61.8% level on a broader 1-hour swing. A rebound off this level could target the 38.2% retracement at 0.0441, but only with increased bullish volume.

Backtest Hypothesis

A potential strategy involves entering a short position when price breaks below the 15-minute lower Bollinger Band and RSI dips below 30, with a stop-loss placed above the 50-period moving average. A long bias is considered only on a confirmed close above the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement at 0.0436, with a target at the 0.0445 level. This approach could be refined with volume confirmation and a trailing stop to manage risk.