Market Overview: Chiliz/Tether (CHZUSDT) – 2025-10-14

• CHZUSDT broke above prior resistance at 0.0365 and tested 0.0370, showing strong bullish momentum in the late evening.
• RSI peaked near overbought territory, suggesting potential near-term profit-taking.
• Volume surged in the 22:00–23:45 ET window, confirming strength in the rally.
• Price reversed sharply after 02:30 ET, falling back below 0.0366 and testing key support.
• Bollinger Bands widened significantly in the afternoon, signaling increased volatility.

Chiliz/Tether (CHZUSDT) opened at 0.03572 on 2025-10-13 at 12:00 ET and reached a high of 0.0370 by 23:45 ET before closing at 0.03468 at 12:00 ET on 2025-10-14. The 24-hour volume was 77,812,589.0 CHZ, while total turnover (notional value) reached $27,581,573. The price formed a bearish reversal pattern after a strong bullish thrust, indicating a potential consolidation phase.

Structure & Formations

The candlestick pattern over the 24-hour period suggests a bullish breakout followed by a sharp reversal. The morning session saw a gradual climb, reaching a high of 0.03695 by 21:00 ET, only to consolidate until a strong push above 0.0370 at 23:45 ET. This was followed by a rapid reversal from 0.0370 to a 24-hour low of 0.03338 by 07:00 ET. A large bearish candle formed during the 05:00–06:00 ET window, signaling potential exhaustion of the bullish move. A doji at 09:45 ET and a bullish engulfing pattern at 11:15 ET suggest potential turning points.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period MA rose above the 50-period MA early in the evening, forming a potential bullish crossover. However, by 05:00 ET, the 20-period MA dipped below the 50-period MA, indicating a bearish shift. On the daily chart, the 50-period MA is below the 100- and 200-period MAs, suggesting a longer-term bearish bias. Price crossed below the 50-period daily MA during the overnight session, reinforcing bearish momentum.

MACD & RSI

The MACD line crossed above the signal line during the afternoon, confirming a short-term bullish momentum. However, by the early morning of 2025-10-14, the MACD line fell below the signal line, forming a potential death cross. The RSI reached a high of 62 during the overnight rally, suggesting the move was strong but not yet overbought. By the morning, RSI fell sharply to 38, indicating oversold conditions by 07:00 ET, which may suggest a potential rebound.

Bollinger Bands

Bollinger Bands expanded significantly between 19:00 ET and 01:00 ET, reflecting heightened volatility. Price peaked at the upper band at 0.0370 before breaking out and rapidly falling to the lower band, where it touched 0.03338. This extreme movement suggests a period of high uncertainty and potential consolidation ahead. Price is currently trading near the middle band, indicating a balanced market sentiment.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked to a 24-hour high of 4,544,441.0 CHZ during the 06:45–07:00 ET window, coinciding with the largest price drop. This suggests heavy selling pressure during that period. Turnover also surged during the reversal phase, indicating significant trading activity. However, the final 4–6 hours saw a volume contraction, suggesting a lack of conviction in the current price action.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci retracements to the 23:45–06:45 ET swing (0.0370 to 0.03338), the 61.8% level aligns with 0.03484—close to where price found support at 0.03416. The 38.2% retracement level at 0.03554 also saw notable consolidation. These levels may act as key resistance and support in the coming 24 hours.

Backtest Hypothesis

To evaluate the robustness of the observed reversal and momentum patterns, a backtest can be conducted using a strategy that buys on a MACD death cross (MACD line crosses below the signal line) and exits when the closing price falls below the 50-period SMA. This aligns with the observed bearish shift in the MACD and the recent break below the 50-period MA. Testing this strategy on CHZUSDT or a broader market proxy will offer insight into its potential profitability in volatile conditions like those seen in this 24-hour window.