Market Overview for Chiliz/Tether (CHZUSDT) on 2025-10-12

• Price declined from a 24-hour high of $0.03387 to close near $0.03268, indicating a bearish bias.
• Key support levels emerged around $0.0325–$0.0326, with a notable bounce observed in the early morning.
• High volume surges occurred during the late-night to early-morning session, confirming bearish momentum.
• RSI entered oversold territory below 30, suggesting a potential short-term rebound could be on the horizon.
• Bollinger Bands show moderate contraction earlier in the day, followed by price action that tested the lower band.

The pair opened at $0.03271 at 12:00 ET - 1 and hit a high of $0.03387 before settling at $0.03268 by 12:00 ET. The 24-hour low was $0.03108. Total traded volume was 57.75 million CHZ, with a notional turnover of approximately $1.92 million, indicating moderate on-chain activity amid bearish price action.

Structure & Formations

Price declined sharply overnight after a sharp intraday rebound from a key support zone at $0.0325–$0.0326. A bullish engulfing pattern was observed early in the morning, followed by a bearish continuation pattern in the afternoon. A long-legged doji at $0.03246 and a morning star pattern at $0.03263–$0.03274 suggest potential consolidation or reversal signals, though bearish continuation appears likely unless the price breaks above $0.0330.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages remain in a bearish crossover, with the price under both lines. On the daily chart, the 50-period MA is at $0.0328, above the 200-period MA at $0.0324, suggesting a potential long-term support area. The price is currently consolidating near the 100-period MA at $0.0326.

MACD & RSI

The MACD line has been negative throughout the day, with bearish momentum intensifying after 2:00 AM ET. RSI has dipped below 30, indicating oversold conditions, but without a clear bullish reversal pattern. This suggests a short-term rebound may occur but could fail without additional volume confirmation.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility was relatively compressed during the early hours of the session but expanded after 12:00 ET as price moved toward the lower band. Price action has remained near the lower band, indicating a continuation of bearish momentum. A break above the upper band would require a strong reversal above $0.0330.

Volume & Turnover

Turnover spiked significantly after 12:00 AM ET, reaching $0.91 million in the 3:00 AM ET session, while volume surged over 5 million CHZ. This confirms bearish conviction during the overnight sell-off. However, volume dipped after 6:00 AM ET, indicating possible exhaustion in the downward move.

Fibonacci Retracements

On the 15-minute chart, price has tested the 61.8% Fibonacci level of the morning rebound at $0.0326, indicating a potential floor. On the daily chart, the 38.2% Fibonacci level is at $0.0329, which could act as resistance. A break below $0.0323 would trigger a test of the 61.8% level at $0.0320.

Backtest Hypothesis

A potential backtesting strategy could involve entering long positions when the price breaks above the 61.8% Fibonacci level at $0.0326, combined with RSI above 50 and volume confirmation. A stop-loss could be placed just below the 38.2% level at $0.0324, while a take-profit target might aim for the 78.6% level at $0.0330. This approach could test the balance between retracement potential and bearish continuation.