Market Overview for Chiliz/Tether (CHZUSDT) on 2025-10-08

• CHZUSDT traded in a tight range overnight before showing a modest upward bias ahead of the 24-hour close.
• Price tested key support at 0.04145–0.04165 and bounced, suggesting short-term resilience.
• Volatility increased during the overnight session, coinciding with a rise in turnover.
• RSI remains neutral, while MACD shows a small bullish divergence, hinting at potential momentum shift.
• Volume is skewed to the latter half of the 24-hour window, supporting recent bullish price action.

Chiliz/Tether (CHZUSDT) opened the 24-hour window at 0.04271, traded between 0.04123 and 0.04307, and closed at 0.04248 by 12:00 ET. Total volume across 24 hours was 35,724,981.0, with a notional turnover of $1,503,059. The pair showed signs of a potential short-term reversal and consolidation after a bearish overnight trend.

Structure & Formations

The price formed a key bullish pattern at 0.04165–0.04156 during the early morning hours, suggesting a potential reversal from a bearish trend. A small bearish engulfing pattern was noted around 0.04262–0.04247, hinting at continued pressure despite the recent bounce. The area between 0.04145 and 0.04155 has acted as strong support, while resistance remains firm at 0.0425–0.0427. A doji candle formed at 0.04160–0.04161, indicating indecision and a possible pause in momentum.

Moving Averages

The 15-minute chart showed price trading slightly above the 20-period and 50-period moving averages in the final hours, indicating some bullish momentum. The 50-period SMA appears to be holding at around 0.04235, acting as a dynamic support level. The 200-period SMA on the daily chart remains above the current price, suggesting that the broader trend is still bearish, though short-term buyers are active in the 0.0415–0.0425 range.

MACD & RSI

The MACD line showed a small positive divergence in the last 15 minutes, with the histogram slightly expanding from a negative to a positive value, suggesting a potential shift in momentum. The RSI is currently neutral at 52, having avoided overbought or oversold conditions for most of the 24-hour period. This indicates a balanced market with neither strong bullish nor bearish pressure, but the recent bounce has created a scenario where a breakout could be followed by a test of key levels.

Bollinger Bands

The price has remained within the upper and lower Bollinger Bands for most of the 24-hour period, with a slight expansion in volatility observed in the overnight hours. The most recent 15-minute candle closed near the middle band, indicating a neutral position but with potential for a breakout should the 0.0427 resistance level be cleared. A sustained close above this level may trigger a volatility expansion and further upside.

Volume & Turnover

Volume increased significantly during the overnight hours, especially between 03:00–05:00 ET, when the price found support at 0.0415. The notional turnover also rose in this period, aligning with the price action and suggesting that the bounce was supported by larger orders. Divergence was not observed between price and turnover, which supports the likelihood of a genuine reversal rather than a short-term countertrend.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci retracement levels to the overnight move from 0.04123 to 0.04275, key retracement levels of 38.2% and 61.8% sit at 0.04182 and 0.04219, respectively. The price has tested both levels in the morning session, with 0.04219 acting as a key support level. A break above 0.0425 would suggest a move toward the 78.6% retracement level at 0.04262. These levels may offer traders potential entry and exit points depending on market sentiment.

Backtest Hypothesis

The backtesting strategy focuses on identifying short-term reversals following bearish exhaustion, particularly after a sustained decline and a confirmed rebound on increasing volume and turnover. A key entry trigger is a bullish engulfing or doji pattern occurring at a Fibonacci retracement level, with a stop-loss placed below the 20-period moving average. The strategy could be backtested using a 15-minute chart with RSI and MACD as confirmatory indicators. A trailing take-profit could be implemented after a 2% gain, aligning with the observed volatility and volume patterns in the recent data.