Market Overview for Chiliz/Tether (CHZUSDT) as of 2025-09-25

• CHZUSDT traded in a tight range near $0.0401, with bearish momentum picking up after 19:00 ET as price fell ~0.9%.
• Volume spiked to 20.8M CHZ in the late afternoon, but price failed to recover, signaling bearish divergence.
• RSI dipped to 30, hinting at oversold conditions, while Bollinger Bands narrowed before a downward break.
• A key support level appears to be forming near $0.0391–0.0393, with a potential 15-minute doji at 04:00 ET.
• 20-period SMA on the 15-minute chart has been bearish, with price now below key moving averages.

Price Action Summary

Chiliz/Tether (CHZUSDT) opened at $0.0406 on 2025-09-24 at 12:00 ET, reached a high of $0.04062, and a low of $0.0385 during the 24-hour window, before closing at $0.03901 on 2025-09-25 at 12:00 ET. The pair traded with moderate volatility and declining momentum throughout the session. Total volume traded over the period was approximately 30.8 million CHZ, with a notional turnover of $1.24 million.

Structure & Formations

Price consolidated within a tight range early in the session but began a bearish trend after 19:00 ET, forming a series of bearish engulfing patterns and a doji at 04:00 ET, indicating indecision. A strong support level is forming around $0.0391–0.0393, which has been tested multiple times. Resistance appears to be forming near $0.0402–0.0405, with a failed breakout attempt observed.

Key candlestick formations include:

• A doji at 04:00 ET indicating potential exhaustion in the downward trend.
• Bearish engulfing patterns from 19:30 ET onward confirming downward pressure.
• A potential bearish flag forming from 02:00 to 04:00 ET.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period SMAs are both bearish, with the price currently below both. The 20SMA crossed below the 50SMA, forming a potential death cross. For daily data, the 50SMA and 200SMA are also bearish, with the price well below both, indicating a medium-term bearish trend.

Momentum Indicators

The RSI has dipped to 30, suggesting oversold conditions and potentially a short-term bounce in the near term. However, the MACD line remains negative, with the histogram showing a bearish trend. The MACD crossover has been negative for much of the session, signaling a lack of bullish momentum.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility has been relatively low in the early part of the session, with price moving near the midline of the bands. However, after 19:00 ET, volatility increased as the price broke below the lower band, confirming bearish pressure. A contraction in band width was observed in the early morning hours, which may suggest a potential breakout, though this has been bearish so far.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked to 20.8 million CHZ at 17:45 ET but failed to push the price higher, signaling bearish divergence. Total volume of 30.8 million CHZ was traded over the 24-hour window, while notional turnover reached $1.24 million. The volume has been relatively high in the late afternoon and early evening hours, coinciding with the bearish break and consolidation below $0.0400.

Fibonacci Retracements

Fibonacci levels drawn from the swing high of $0.04062 to the swing low of $0.0385 show the price currently resting near the 61.8% retracement level at $0.0394. This suggests strong support is nearby, with potential for a bounce. On the 15-minute chart, price is close to the 61.8% level again, reinforcing the potential for a short-term reversal.

Backtest Hypothesis

A backtest strategy involving a bearish breakout from the 15-minute doji at 04:00 ET and a trailing stop-loss at $0.0393 could be viable in the current environment. Given the oversold RSI and bearish MACD, a potential long-term reversal could be tested with a buy at the 61.8% Fibonacci level. This setup suggests a mean-reversion trade may be possible, particularly if volume increases with price stability.

Forward-Looking Perspective

Over the next 24 hours, CHZUSDT may see a short-term bounce from key support levels near $0.0391–0.0393. However, bearish momentum remains strong, with RSI signaling oversold conditions and MACD staying in negative territory. Traders should closely monitor volume and price divergence, as any sustained rally above $0.0402 could challenge the bearish bias.

Investors should be cautious of the bearish trendline and potential for further downward momentum, particularly if volume does not confirm a rebound. Key resistance at $0.0402 should be closely watched for potential breakouts or breakdowns.