Market Overview: Chainlink/Yen (LINKJPY) 24-Hour Technical Summary

• Chainlink/Yen (LINKJPY) saw a 1.3% pullback over 24 hours, closing near session lows amid bearish momentum.
• Price action formed multiple bearish reversals, with key resistance near ¥3355-3360 and support at ¥3280-3285.
• Volume surged during the bullish attempt but faded on the decline, signaling weakening conviction.
• RSI entered oversold territory near 30, hinting at potential short-term rebounds, though momentum remains bearish.

Opening Narrative

Chainlink/Yen (LINKJPY) opened at ¥3309 on 2025-10-02 12:00 ET, reached a high of ¥3403, and closed at ¥3288 by 12:00 ET on 2025-10-03. Total volume traded over 24 hours was 14,849.03, with notional turnover at ¥49,661,921. A bearish drift dominated, with bearish engulfing patterns forming in the late hours.

Structure & Formations

Price declined in a bearish manner, forming multiple bearish engulfing patterns late in the session, particularly during the 07:30–08:00 ET range. A large bearish engulfing pattern at ¥3307–3311 suggested exhaustion after a prior bullish attempt. A doji formed near ¥3335–3336, signaling indecision. Key resistances emerged at ¥3355–3360 and ¥3375–3380, while strong support was observed at ¥3280–3285 and ¥3270–3275.

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Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period MA crossed below the 50-period MA, forming a death cross. The 50-period MA at ¥3335 acted as a dynamic resistance. On the daily chart, the 50-period MA was near ¥3350, while the 100 and 200-period MAs were at ¥3370 and ¥3385, respectively. Price closed below all three, suggesting bearish alignment.

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MACD & RSI

The 15-minute MACD (12,26,9) showed a bearish crossover late in the session, with the histogram shrinking on the downward move. RSI (14) closed near 30, indicating oversold conditions, though this was not accompanied by a price bounce. Momentum remained bearish throughout, with RSI declining from 50 to 30.

Backtest Hypothesis

A potential backtesting strategy could target short entries on RSI < 30 and MACD bear crossovers, with stops above the nearest resistance at ¥3300. Exit targets could be based on 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the ¥3288–3368 range (¥3330). This strategy aligns with observed bearish momentum and would test the strength of key levels in the next 24 hours.

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Bollinger Bands

Bollinger Bands showed a moderate expansion in the early hours, with price touching the lower band at ¥3288. Later, price remained within the bands, indicating controlled volatility. A contraction in the mid-session was followed by a bearish breakout that failed to hold, suggesting potential consolidation ahead.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked during the ¥3362–3368 move but declined significantly during the bearish reversal, indicating diminishing bullish conviction. Notional turnover mirrored the volume pattern, with the highest activity at ¥3362–3366 and a drop-off after the bearish engulfing patterns emerged.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci to the ¥3288–3368 swing, the 38.2% retracement is at ¥3334 and the 61.8% at ¥3315. Price failed to hold at the 38.2% level and retested the 61.8% mark, suggesting potential for a rebound if support at ¥3280 holds.

Outlook & Risk

With price near key support at ¥3280 and RSI in oversold territory, a short-term rebound may occur. However, bearish momentum and failed resistance attempts suggest further downside could follow if buyers fail to re-enter the market. Watch for a potential test of ¥3270–3275. Investors should be cautious of thin volume and potential breakouts below ¥3280.