Market Overview: Chainlink/Yen (LINKJPY) – 24-Hour Summary (2025-10-05)

• Price surged from ¥3219 to ¥3356 on strong bullish momentum before retracing
• Key resistance at ¥3356–3372 tested, but volume failed to confirm a breakout
• Volatility expanded after ¥3250, with Bollinger Band width widening
• RSI overbought at 75+ multiple times, but price failed to hold above 3330
• Volume increased during rally but dipped during pullback, signaling mixed sentiment

The Chainlink/Yen pair (LINKJPY) opened at ¥3219 on 2025-10-04 at 12:00 ET and reached a high of ¥3356 before closing at ¥3356 on 2025-10-05 at 12:00 ET. Total volume over the 24-hour period was 11,675.57, with a notional turnover of ¥39,997,878. The pair exhibited a strong bullish bias, particularly in the early hours of the morning.

Structure & Formations

The 24-hour period featured a strong bullish trend from ¥3219 to ¥3356, with key resistance levels forming around ¥3330–3356 and ¥3364–3372. A bullish engulfing pattern emerged at ¥3243–3258, confirming a shift in sentiment. A doji formed at ¥3315, indicating indecision. The pullback below ¥3330 after multiple overbought RSI levels suggested a bearish correction may be imminent.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages both trended upwards, supporting the bullish bias. The 50-period line lagged slightly but remained well above the 20-period line. On the daily chart, the 50/100/200-period MAs formed a positive alignment, reinforcing the long-term bullish structure. Price appears to be above all key moving averages, signaling sustained buyer participation.

MACD & RSI

The MACD showed a bullish crossover with the signal line during the early rally, reinforcing the upward thrust. However, the histogram later flattened, suggesting fading momentum. RSI repeatedly hit overbought levels (above 75) but failed to push above 80, indicating a potential exhaustion. Price action diverged from RSI during the pullback below ¥3330, suggesting weakening momentum and increasing risk of a reversal.

Bollinger Bands

Bollinger Bands expanded significantly during the upward push, with price reaching the upper band at ¥3356–3372 multiple times. The expansion indicates heightened volatility. Price has not yet tested the lower band and remains above the 20-period moving average. A contraction in the bands could precede a reversal or a continuation of the trend, depending on volume confirmation.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked during the rally from ¥3243 to ¥3356, with several 15-minute candles showing over ¥500k in turnover. This confirmed buyer strength during the early phase. However, volume dipped during the pullback to ¥3315–3335, indicating a lack of follow-through. The divergence between price and volume during the correction suggests a potential shift in sentiment.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci levels to the ¥3219–3356 move, the 23.6% retracement was around ¥3295, and the 38.2% level was approximately ¥3274. Price found support at ¥3315, close to the 61.8% retracement of ¥3236. These levels are likely to remain key for the next 24 hours, with the 61.8% level acting as a critical support.

Backtest Hypothesis

A potential backtesting strategy involves entering long positions on a bullish engulfing pattern confirmed by volume and price action above the 50-period moving average, with a stop-loss placed at the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level. Traders could target the next resistance at ¥3364–3372 and exit if RSI hits overbought levels without confirmation. A short bias could be triggered on a breakdown below ¥3315, with the 38.2% retracement as a target. This approach aligns with observed price structure and momentum indicators, but risks are elevated given recent overbought conditions.