Market Overview for Chainlink/Yen (LINKJPY) – 24-Hour Analysis

• Chainlink/Yen (LINKJPY) traded lower in a volatile 24-hour session with a bearish close below key support.
• A sharp drop post-18:00 ET signaled increased bearish pressure and a breakdown of recent intraday resistance.
• Volatility expanded significantly, with volume surging during the downward move, suggesting increased conviction.
• RSI approached oversold territory, hinting at potential near-term rebounds, though momentum remains bearish.
• Bollinger Bands widened, reflecting elevated price swings and uncertain consolidation ahead.

Price Action and Open Interest

Chainlink/Yen (LINKJPY) opened at 2660.0 on 2025-10-22 at 12:00 ET and traded as high as 2668.0 before declining sharply to a low of 2547.0 on 211500. By 12:00 ET on 2025-10-23, the pair closed at 2645.0, down 1.10% from the opening level. Total volume over the 24-hour period was 10,478.87 units, with a notional turnover of 27,722,430.82 JPY. The sharp intraday bearish move and subsequent partial retracement suggest a testing of short-term support levels.

The price action featured a deep bearish reversal, with a large bearish candle from 211500, where the price dropped from 2608.0 to 2585.0, followed by a bearish continuation pattern later in the session. A notable bearish engulfing pattern occurred on 233000 as LINKJPY closed at 2609.0 after opening at 2597.0 and trading as low as 2597.0.

Trend and Momentum

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages crossed bearishly, confirming a short-term downtrend. The 50-period SMA remained above the 20-period SMA but pulled downward with the price. On the daily chart, LINKJPY sits below its 50-period and 200-period SMAs, reinforcing the medium-term bearish bias.

Relative Strength Index (RSI) on the 15-minute chart reached 30 at 220000, signaling oversold conditions, and then bounced back to around 40 by the close. However, momentum remains weak, with MACD lines dipping below the zero line and showing bearish divergence. The MACD histogram narrowed slightly in the final hours, suggesting a potential slowdown in the bearish move.

Volatility and Key Levels

Bollinger Bands widened significantly during the bearish breakdown, with price hitting the lower band at 2547.0 and closing near the middle band. This volatility expansion is often followed by a period of consolidation or a reversal, depending on volume and momentum.

Key resistance levels currently include 2660.0 (open price) and 2670.0 (rejection level from 070000–073000), while support levels are at 2645.0 (current close), 2630.0, and the critical 2600.0 level, which has held as a psychological floor. A break below 2600.0 may trigger further bearish momentum toward 2570.0 or even 2550.0.

Fibonacci retracement levels on the 24-hour move from 2668.0 to 2547.0 sit at 2634.0 (38.2%), 2619.0 (50%), and 2603.0 (61.8%). The close at 2645.0 suggests a potential retracement back to the 2634.0 level, but sustained strength would need to clear 2650.0 to challenge the 2660.0–2668.0 range.

Backtest Hypothesis

A proposed backtesting strategy for this market would focus on identifying high-probability candlestick reversal patterns, such as the Bullish Engulfing and Bearish Harami, and measuring their predictive power over a historical dataset. For example, a Bullish Engulfing pattern at the lower end of a downtrend might indicate a short-term reversal, while a Bearish Harami at the top of an uptrend could signal bearish continuation.

However, an issue was encountered in this case: the system could not find valid price data for the exact ticker symbol LINKJPY. This appears to stem from either a missing feed or a mismatch in the naming convention used by the data provider. To proceed, one of the following must be confirmed:

1. Confirm the exact ticker symbol that the data provider uses for Chainlink quoted in JPY (e.g., “LINK/JPY”, “LINKJPY=X”, or an exchange-specific code).
2. Alternatively, if JPY-denominated data is unavailable:
3. Run the backtest using LINKUSD and convert USD to JPY using a separate FX feed.
4. Or, construct a synthetic LINKJPY series by cross-referencing LINKUSD and USDJPY data.

Once a valid data source is confirmed, the strategy can be executed by applying the relevant candlestick patterns and measuring their performance in real-world conditions.