Market Overview: Chainlink/Yen (LINKJPY) 24-Hour Analysis

• Chainlink/Yen (LINKJPY) opened at 3255.0 and closed at 3097.0, marking a sharp 4.9% decline over 24 hours.
• Price action formed a bearish breakdown below key support levels and showed no signs of reversal patterns.
• Volatility surged, with Bollinger Bands widening significantly, indicating heightened risk and uncertainty.
• RSI reached oversold territory (30s), but volume failed to confirm a potential bounce, signaling caution.
• Turnover spiked overnight amid aggressive selling, especially during the 03:30–05:30 ET session.

At 12:00 ET on 2025-09-25, Chainlink/Yen (LINKJPY) opened at 3255.0, hit a high of 3274.0, and fell to a low of 3092.0 before closing at 3097.0. Total volume for the 24-hour window was 49,607.0 contracts, with notional turnover reaching ¥159,619,514. The price action reflected a strong bearish sentiment, especially from 22:00–06:00 ET when LINKJPY dropped from ¥3,240 to under ¥3,100. The breakdown below the ¥3,220 psychological level marked a key shift in momentum, supported by weak volume on attempted rallies.

Structure & Formations

The 24-hour candlestick chart showed a long bearish real body with a short upper wick, indicating strong selling pressure from the outset. A bearish engulfing pattern formed around ¥3,255–¥3,243 as buyers failed to reclaim key levels. The breakdown below ¥3,220 acted as a major trigger, with no immediate reversal signals. A doji appeared at ¥3,157, but it was quickly consumed by further selling. Key support levels now appear at ¥3,100–¥3,092, with ¥3,050 as a critical next target.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages crossed below the price around 01:00–02:00 ET, confirming the bearish trend. The daily chart showed the 50-period and 100-period moving averages converging around ¥3,250, further validating the breakdown. The 200-period MA remains a critical long-term reference point at ¥3,170–3,165, with the current price now below all key moving averages.

MACD & RSI

The MACD crossed into negative territory around 02:30 ET and has remained bearish, with the signal line pulling away from the histogram. The RSI fell below 30 by 05:30 ET, reaching a low of 28.2, indicating potential oversold conditions. However, volume failed to confirm a bounce, with buying pressure remaining weak. This divergence suggests caution about a short-term rebound. The RSI has yet to recover above 40, which could signal further downside unless there is a strong reversal in volume.

Bollinger Bands

Bollinger Bands expanded significantly during the 03:00–05:00 ET window as volatility surged following the breakdown below ¥3,220. Price traded near the lower band for much of the morning, confirming weak demand. A contraction in the bands is yet to occur, suggesting continued risk of range expansion or a sharp directional move. If price closes below the lower band for a third consecutive session, it could trigger further stop-loss selling.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked overnight, particularly between 03:30–05:30 ET, when LINKJPY dropped from ¥3,200 to under ¥3,130. The notional turnover reached a peak of ¥13,596,751 during this period. However, volume declined sharply during attempted rebounds in the early morning and midday, signaling weak conviction from buyers. The divergence between price and volume suggests further downside could be in play unless volume improves with upward moves.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci retracements to the 24-hour swing from ¥3,274 to ¥3,092, the 38.2% level sits at ¥3,185 and the 61.8% level at ¥3,136. Price has already tested and broken below the 61.8% level, suggesting the move to ¥3,100–3,092 is part of a deeper bearish phase. On the daily chart, the 61.8% retracement of the broader downtrend from ¥3,400 to ¥3,092 is at ¥3,158, a level now being used as a dynamic resistance.

Backtest Hypothesis

A potential backtesting strategy could involve entering a short position upon a bearish breakout below a key Fibonacci retracement level (e.g., 61.8%) confirmed by volume and RSI divergence. Stops could be placed just above the most recent swing high (e.g., ¥3,158), with a target at the next support level (¥3,050–3,000). The MACD crossing into negative territory and staying below the signal line could also act as a confirmatory filter. Such a strategy would aim to capture continuation of the bearish trend while managing risk with tight stops, leveraging the current technical setup.