Market Overview: Chainlink/Yen (LINKJPY) – 2025-11-11

Summary
• Price climbed 2472 to 2587 JPY, closing at 2472 with strong bearish reversal.
• RSI peaked overbought, confirming bearish momentum reversal.
• Bollinger Band contraction pre-breakout suggests range-bound volatility before breakout.
• Volume increased sharply during peak high, confirming distribution pattern.

Chainlink/Yen (LINKJPY) opened at 2472 JPY on 2025-11-10 and closed at 2472 JPY on 2025-11-11, reaching a high of 2587 JPY and a low of 2472 JPY. Total 24-hour volume was 8344.65 units with a notional turnover of approximately JPY 21,171,898.

Structure & Formations

Price formed a distinct bearish reversal pattern, particularly evident in the candlestick near the 2587 JPY high, where a long upper shadow and bearish close signaled rejection of higher levels. Support appears to form at the 2472 JPY level, with multiple candles closing near this floor. A large bearish engulfing pattern formed after the 2587 JPY high, indicating a potential reversal.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages remained crossed during the late surge toward 2587 JPY, with the 20SMA pulling upward during the breakout. On the daily chart, the 50-period MA is near 2490 JPY, below the 200-period MA (~2475 JPY), suggesting a bearish bias. The 100-period MA also supports this bearish structure, with price closing below key averages.

MACD & RSI

MACD showed a bearish crossover in the last hours of the session, with the histogram declining from positive to negative. RSI reached overbought levels (>70), then reversed sharply downward into neutral territory, confirming a bearish momentum shift. The rapid divergence between price highs and RSI highs may indicate exhaustion in the bullish move.

Bollinger Bands

Price action broke out of a tight Bollinger Band contraction that occurred between 05:00 and 08:00 ET. This breakout was confirmed by a closing candle above the upper band, but the subsequent bearish reversal suggested a retest of the lower band as a key support zone. The 2472 JPY level now aligns with the lower band and has held, indicating a potential range-bound scenario ahead.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked to 280.49 units at 00:00 ET and remained elevated during the 03:00–05:00 ET session, coinciding with the 2587 JPY high. Turnover spiked during this period, confirming distribution activity. However, volume began to decline after the 05:00 ET peak, suggesting weakening conviction in the bullish move. A bearish divergence emerged between price and volume in the final hours of the session, reinforcing the reversal signal.

Fibonacci Retracements

On the 15-minute chart, the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level (~2520 JPY) held briefly before breaking down. On the daily chart, a 61.8% retracement of the recent upswing lies near 2490 JPY, which is now being tested as a potential support/resistance pivot. Price may retest the 2472 JPY low before a potential rebound attempt.

Backtest Hypothesis

The RSI Overbought – Next-day Exit strategy, which triggers a long entry at the day’s close when RSI > 70 and exits at the next day’s close, delivered a total return of -2.02% from 2022–01–01 to 2025–11–11. This underperformance, combined with an annualised return of -0.48% and a Sharpe ratio of -0.03, highlights the inefficacy of the strategy in this asset. Given today’s RSI divergence and bearish price action, such a strategy would have entered a long position on the close of 2025–11–10 and likely exited at a loss. This reinforces the need for caution in relying solely on overbought signals in volatile, non-trending assets like LINKJPY.