Market Overview for Chainlink/Yen (LINKJPY) — 2025-11-01

• Chainlink/Yen declined over 4% in 24 hours, opening at ¥2666 and bottoming at ¥2603 before a late-day rally.
• Price consolidated near ¥2660–2680 resistance in the final 5 hours, with increasing volume and volatility.
• RSI bottomed in oversold territory, suggesting potential for a near-term bounce.
• Bollinger Bands widened in the second half, indicating a breakout attempt.
• Volume surged to over 500 yen units at ¥2658–2673, highlighting key liquidity zones.

The Chainlink/Yen pair (LINKJPY) opened at ¥2666 on 2025-11-01 and moved lower throughout the early part of the session, bottoming at ¥2603 before staging a late rally to close at ¥2674. Total 15-minute volume reached 5062.89 yen units, with turnover concentrated in the ¥2640–2680 range. A bearish engulfing pattern formed in the ¥2644–2603 block, followed by a potential bullish reversal in the ¥2660–2674 cluster.

Key support levels appeared at ¥2640 and ¥2630, both tested multiple times during the session, with price bouncing on the second test. Resistance emerged strongly at ¥2673–2675, with a bullish engulfing pattern forming at the close. The 20-period moving average crossed below the 50-period line in the morning, reinforcing bearish momentum, while the 50-period line acted as a floor in the late session. Price briefly crossed above the 20-period line at the end, hinting at a potential short-term reversal.

RSI reached a low of 30 in the mid-session trough before rising back to mid-50s, indicating oversold conditions and a potential short-covering rally. MACD showed a bearish crossover early but reversed into positive territory by the final hour. Bollinger Bands expanded in the latter part of the session, with price closing near the upper band, suggesting rising volatility and a possible continuation of the bullish move.

Fibonacci retracement levels from the ¥2603 to ¥2674 swing showed price consolidating around the 61.8% level at ¥2659–2660, which acted as a key pivot. Volume confirmed the strength of the final push above ¥2670, though divergence between price and volume at ¥2680–2685 suggests caution ahead. The 15-minute chart appears to be setting up for a potential breakout to the upside, though confirmation near ¥2685 is needed.

The market may continue to test ¥2675–2680 as a critical breakout level in the next 24 hours. A close above this zone could signal a return to the ¥2700–2690 range. However, a pullback to ¥2650–2645 could test the strength of the recent reversal. Investors should remain cautious of divergence in volume and volatility around ¥2680 and prepare for both continuation and reversal scenarios.

Backtest Hypothesis

A potential backtest strategy could involve entering long positions after a bullish engulfing pattern is confirmed near ¥2660–2670, with a stop loss placed below ¥2640 and a target at ¥2690. This would align with the MACD turning positive and the RSI moving out of oversold territory. Alternatively, a short trade could be considered on a breakdown of ¥2640, with a stop above ¥2660 and a target near ¥2600. Given the recent volatility and key Fibonacci levels, a 5-day holding period may capture directional moves effectively, though traders should closely monitor divergence in volume and RSI overbought conditions.