Market Overview for Chainlink/Yen (LINKJPY) on 2025-10-29

• Chainlink/Yen (LINKJPY) opened at 2787.0 and closed at 2764.0 after a volatile 24-hour period.
• Price hit a high of 2834.0 before a sharp decline to 2666.0, showing bearish momentum.
• Volatility surged, especially between 1600–2030 ET, with volume spiking to 968.52.
• RSI and MACD signaled overbought conditions early, followed by a sell-off divergence.
• Bollinger Bands show expansion, and price remains below the 20-period MA, indicating bearish bias.

Chainlink/Yen (LINKJPY) opened at 2787.0 on 2025-10-28 12:00 ET and closed at 2764.0 at 12:00 ET on 2025-10-29. The pair reached an intraday high of 2834.0 and a low of 2666.0, with a total volume of 14,861.66 and a turnover of 38,313,211.2 JPY. The session was marked by sharp price swings and heavy volume during key bearish breakouts.

Structure & Formations

Price opened near a minor support at 2787.0 but quickly reversed higher, forming a bullish engulfing pattern at 16:30 ET before encountering a strong resistance at 2834.0. A large bearish candle followed at 19:30 ET, closing at 2756.0—a clear breakdown of previous support levels. Subsequent trading saw a continuation of bearish momentum, with price consolidating around 2710.0–2720.0 before a late rebound toward 2760.0. A doji at 05:45 ET suggests indecision, while a morning reversal at 07:30 ET hinted at renewed buying pressure. Key support levels to watch now include 2720.0 and 2690.0, with resistance at 2770.0 and 2800.0.

Moving Averages and MACD

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period MA crossed below the 50-period MA in a bearish death cross, confirming the downward trend. The MACD line fell sharply in the latter half of the session, with a bearish crossover and a large histogram. While the MACD remained above zero early on, it declined into negative territory by 21:00 ET, signaling waning momentum. On the daily chart, the 50-period MA crossed below the 200-period MA earlier in the week, reinforcing the bearish bias.

RSI and Bollinger Bands

The RSI spiked into overbought territory (70+) at 17:30 ET but quickly reversed as price collapsed, dipping into oversold territory (below 30) by 20:30 ET. The RSI remains in a bearish phase, suggesting further downside may be likely unless there is a strong reversal. Bollinger Bands expanded significantly during the sell-off, with price reaching the lower band at 2666.0, a sign of exhaustion. Price has since bounced back to the middle band but remains under the upper band, indicating continued bearish pressure.

Volume and Turnover

Volume spiked to 968.52 at 22:15 ET during the breakdown below 2800.0, confirming the bearish move. However, volume dipped below 20.0 after 04:00 ET, suggesting fading momentum. Turnover mirrored volume closely, with a total notional value of 38.31 million Yen traded. Price and turnover remained aligned during the breakdown and early consolidation, but a divergence began after 07:00 ET as price rose but volume stayed moderate. This suggests caution in interpreting the rebound as a reversal.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci retracements to the 16:00–20:30 ET swing high of 2834.0 and low of 2666.0, key levels at 2767.0 (61.8%) and 2800.0 (38.2%) were tested and rejected. The 61.8% retracement level at 2767.0 appears to be a significant psychological hurdle, which was only briefly touched before price continued lower. On the daily chart, the 50% retracement from the recent high of 2834.0 to the low of 2666.0 sits at 2750.0, where price has found temporary support.

Backtest Hypothesis

Given the observed bearish MACD divergence and sharp price declines, a backtesting strategy could be developed to explore the effectiveness of a short bias triggered by bearish MACD divergence. For a practical test, using the S&P 500 ETF (SPY) as a proxy for broader market conditions provides a solid baseline. A common approach is to hold positions for a fixed 20-day period and close the position at the end of that period unless a stop-loss is triggered. This method eliminates bias from variable exit points and focuses on the timing of the MACD signal. For a more robust test, including a 5% stop-loss and 10% take-profit would help manage risk effectively.