Market Overview for Chainlink/Yen (LINKJPY) - 2025-10-14

• Chainlink/Yen (LINKJPY) traded in a volatile range over 24 hours, forming key bearish and bullish candlestick patterns.
• Price dropped sharply from ¥3058 to ¥2761, showing a strong bearish momentum and overbought RSI reversal.
• A late-day recovery attempt pushed the price back to ¥2894, but failed to retest key resistances above ¥3035.
• Low volume during the initial bullish rebound suggests weak conviction, while high turnover during the selloff indicates significant participation.
• Fibonacci retracements highlight ¥2850–¥2900 as key support for potential short-term bounces.

The 24-hour period for Chainlink/Yen (LINKJPY) opened at ¥3016 on 2025-10-13 at 12:00 ET and closed at ¥2894 on 2025-10-14 at the same time, with a high of ¥3075 and a low of ¥2761. Total volume for the period was 6,321.63 and total notional turnover was ¥18,349,590. The pair exhibited intense price swings and significant volatility, especially after a large bearish candle formed early in the afternoon.

Structure & Formations

Price formed a strong bearish engulfing pattern around ¥3058–¥3048, followed by a long bearish candle to ¥2881. A brief attempt to rally in the evening was capped by a high of ¥2894, failing to reclaim ¥2900. Key support levels were identified near ¥2790, ¥2850, and ¥2900, with resistance at ¥2945 and ¥3035. A doji formed at ¥2890, signaling indecision and potential reversal, but volume was low during the attempted bounce.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period moving average crossed below the 50-period line, confirming a bearish bias. Daily moving averages (50, 100, 200) show a strong bearish divergence, with price closing far below all of them. This alignment suggests a continuation of the bearish trend, at least in the short term, and reinforces key support levels as potential reversal zones.

MACD & RSI

The MACD showed a bearish crossover early in the selloff, with a strong negative histogram. RSI reached oversold levels near 20, indicating potential for a bounce, but with high volume during the selloff and low volume during the rebound, the likelihood of a sustained recovery is questionable. A follow-up bearish close after the RSI overbought reversal could confirm a continuation of the downtrend.

Bollinger Bands

Bollinger Bands widened significantly during the selloff, confirming increased volatility. The price closed near the lower band at ¥2894, suggesting exhaustion in the downward move. However, the bands are still wide, and the midline is trending lower, implying that while the immediate move may pause, the broader bearish trend remains intact.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked during the sharp selloff from ¥3058 to ¥2881, with a single candle (¥3058–¥2881) contributing to a large portion of the total turnover. In contrast, the evening rally was accompanied by much lower volume, indicating a lack of conviction. This divergence between price and volume could foreshadow further bearish movement unless a high-volume reversal pattern develops.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci retracements to the major swing from ¥3016 to ¥3075, key levels at 38.2% (¥3037) and 61.8% (¥3009) appear as potential resistance and support, respectively. On the broader daily move from ¥3058 to ¥2761, 38.2% is at ¥2914 and 61.8% is at ¥2830, aligning with the late-day attempt to find a floor. If the price holds above ¥2830, a short-term bounce could be expected.

Backtest Hypothesis

A potential backtesting strategy could leverage bearish engulfing patterns as entry signals, with exits triggered by the next bearish candle close. The data shows several such formations, including the key bearish engulfing at ¥3058–¥3048. If this pattern is consistent across the dataset, a rule-based approach could yield meaningful returns, though it requires precise identification of the matching exits. Implementing a fixed holding period or including risk controls such as a stop-loss at 5–10% could enhance the strategy's robustness.