Market Overview for Chainlink/Yen (LINKJPY) on 2025-10-12

• Chainlink/Yen (LINKJPY) dropped to a 24-hour low of ¥2555 before rebounding to a high of ¥2868, showing strong volatility.
• Volume spiked during the early morning ET, confirming bearish momentum but diverged near the high, hinting at exhaustion.
• RSI hit oversold levels before the rebound, suggesting potential for short-term reversal, though MACD remained bearish into the close.
• Price traded within a widening Bollinger Band, with the upper band being breached at the end of the period, signaling rising volatility.
• A bullish engulfing pattern formed near ¥2625, potentially indicating a short-term reversal after the sharp decline from ¥2765.

At 12:00 ET on 2025-10-12, Chainlink/Yen (LINKJPY) opened at ¥2723, reaching a high of ¥2868 and a low of ¥2555 before closing at ¥2868. Total traded volume was 11,798.79, with a notional turnover of ¥28,818,794.50. Price action displayed a sharp V-bottom and a final bullish breakout at the 15-minute interval.

Structure & Formations

The LINKJPY pair displayed a distinct V-bottom structure between 0200 and 0330 ET, forming a key support at ¥2561. From there, a rapid reversal unfolded, characterized by a bullish engulfing pattern at ¥2625. Further resistance emerged at ¥2678, ¥2765, and finally ¥2868, which was the session high and the point of close. A doji formed near ¥2823 at 1545 ET, signaling indecision before the final upward thrust. These structures suggest a possible near-term shift in sentiment, though bearish pressure remains evident in earlier bearish hammers and inside bars.

Moving Averages and MACD/RSI

The 15-minute 20-EMA and 50-EMA were in a steep downtrend throughout the session, with price breaking above the 50-EMA near the final hour. The 50/100/200 daily MA setup was bearish at the open but was challenged as price closed above the 50-day MA. The MACD remained bearish until the final 45-minute interval, where the line crossed above the signal line, confirming bullish momentum. RSI hit oversold levels (~28) at 0200 ET, then surged into overbought territory (>75) at 1545 ET, suggesting exhaustion in both extremes.

Bollinger Bands and Volatility

Bollinger Bands showed a contraction during the overnight low at ¥2555, followed by a sharp expansion as price broke out to the high of ¥2868. Price closed near the upper band, indicating heightened volatility and bullish momentum. The widening bands suggest increased market uncertainty, with strong buying pressure emerging in the final 2 hours of the session.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked sharply during the early morning (0200–0400 ET), with large blocks at ¥2562 and ¥2627, confirming the bearish momentum. However, in the final 90 minutes, volume remained relatively moderate despite the sharp rise, suggesting possible profit-taking or a consolidation phase. Notional turnover also diverged from the price high, with a lower volume at ¥2868 compared to the earlier bearish moves. This divergence may signal a potential short-term topping pattern.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci retracement levels to the key swing low at ¥2555 and swing high at ¥2765, the 38.2% level at ¥2656 was a minor support, which was respected and tested. The 61.8% retracement at ¥2661 was also a key level, aligning with a minor consolidation before the final push. On the daily chart, retracement levels from the recent high at ¥2868 to the prior low at ¥2561 suggest a possible retest of ¥2723 as a key psychological level in the next 24 hours.

Backtest Hypothesis

A potential backtesting strategy could involve using the bullish engulfing pattern near ¥2625 in conjunction with RSI hitting oversold levels as an entry signal. A stop-loss could be placed just below ¥2561 (the recent swing low), with a target near ¥2765 (prior resistance). The MACD crossover in the final 45 minutes also validated the bullish bias. Backtesting this strategy over a 15-minute interval, using a 2.5% risk per trade, could provide insights into the efficacy of such a pattern in volatile environments. This approach aligns with the observed technical setup and offers a data-driven approach for entry and exit decisions.